Disasters prompt concerns, but experts say worry not
By CURT SLYDERcslyder@journalandcourier.comand DAVID SMITHdsmith@journalandcourier.com
Dennis Kellar of Carroll County moved back into his home along the Tippecanoe River this week after a very expensive winter.
January flooding, followed by more flooding this month, cost him about $25,000 in repairs.
"That's just the house," he said. "I've still got to do the garage."
He wasn't alone.
Because of high water, President Bush declared nine Indiana counties disaster areas. So far nearly 1,000 residents in nine counties, including Carroll, White and Tippecanoe, have applied for federal assistance.
Back-to-back floods, record-breaking heat, killer tornadoes -- these extremes and others are causing many people to wonder if the weird weather phenomena are related -- perhaps the result of global warming.
Kellar goes even farther, speculating that extreme weather may have something to do with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that caused tsunamis, or tidal waves, that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
"Everything's been happening since that big tsunami," Kellar said. "Something is wrong. This is crazy."
Devdutta "Dev" Niyogi, Indiana state climatologist at Purdue University, tries to dispel such clouds of speculation with cold, hard facts. He said that while climate is undergoing long-term changes, other factors are likely causing the Midwest's weird weather.
The most likely culprit, he said, is La Niña -- a cooling of the Pacific Ocean that causes a shift in weather over North America every four to six years.
Higher than normal precipitation and temperature extremes "are the swings we expect with a La Niña type pattern," Niyogi said.
"And we're not out of the woods yet," he said. Niyogi said La Niña could bring additional high precipitation this winter, followed by potentially more violent thunderstorms in spring and summer.
"I'm not a climate change skeptic," he said. "I agree there is some degree of climate change occurring. We need to make cause and effect more clear."
Reality vs. perception
Niyogi said there is evidence that Indiana's growing season has lengthened in the past century. But that subtle shift, very real to farmers, doesn't get the same media attention as floods, tornadoes and other extremes.
"In a sense, we do see general increases in climate extremes. However, we also have a short-term memory. When we see something happen, we think it is the worse that's ever been."
Dave McDowell, director of the Carroll County Emergency Management Department, tends to agree.
"When I was in school, there was the Blizzard of '78," McDowell said. "All the headlines back then read 'Ice Age imminent.'
"There seems to be a shift in the weather every 20 years or so."
McDowell also believes people are making a bigger issue of extreme weather because communities are expanding into formerly undeveloped areas.
"As humanity expands, there are more things to damage," he said.
McDowell believes weather extremes are something that must be anticipated, whatever their cause. This is especially true in flood-prone areas.
Where was the warning?
When Kellar and others along the Tippecanoe River were flooded out Jan. 8, the high water came quickly. The flood occurred after warm temperatures the previous day melted snow and overnight thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain.
Oakdale Dam, a hydroelectric dam not designed for flood control, let the torrent pass through to the Tippecanoe River.
Downstream residents such as Kellar were caught by surprise, in part because the dam's owner, Northern Indiana Public Service Co., failed to trigger a phone alert system designed to warn residents of dangerously high flows.
"Many residents awoke to the sound of water rushing through their homes, after an early-warning system failed," noted Indiana's Jan. 28 application for federal relief, sent by Gov. Mitch Daniels to the White House.
Jim Fitzer, a public affairs manager for NIPSCO, said the dam operator on duty notified emergency and company personnel of the high flows but did not realize residents were not notified warned until the next day.
Fitzer said operating procedures have since been clarified, and the warning system worked properly when flooding returned on Feb. 5.
McDowell is pushing for a three-tiered warning system that would place warning sirens along the river and weather radios in every home along with the telephone warning system.
The cost of sirens could be substantial, potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars. "Right now, I'm trying to figure out how to pay for it," McDowell said.
With adequate warning, residents in the flood-prone areas could move themselves as well as furnishings, clothing and prized possessions out of harm's way.
Kellar agreed that a better warning system is needed.
"We need an early warning system from Buffalo, all the way down the Tippecanoe River," he said.
So far, the damage toll has run into the millions, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In the nine-county disaster declaration area, FEMA has processed 968 applications for disaster assistance from individuals and businesses.
The applications represent $3.1 million in assistance approved so far, an amount that could grow significantly in coming weeks, Sam Ventura, FEMA public information officer, predicted.
Those kinds of numbers tell McDowell that a warning system would be a worthwhile investment. He would like to see FEMA help pay for it, but he has been told such a request may have to go through Indiana's Homeland Security Department.
"If we get the money, I don't see why such a system couldn't be up this summer," McDowell said.
A brief history of Wabash flooding
A Journal & Courier analysis of Wabash River peak levels for the past 108 years suggests that significant flooding -- defined as a river level of 20 feet or more measured at Brown Street -- is no more common now than it was 50 to 100 years ago.Between 1901 and 1954 there were 30 floods in excess of 20 feet, the same number as from 1954 to present.And multiple significant floods in one year are not that uncommon either.The year 1927 saw three separate floods in excess of 20 feet, and during the 11 months between June 1958 and May 1959, three floods ranging in size from 22.4 feet to 26.4 feet occurred in Lafayette.The February 1959 flood, which prompted a national disaster declaration by President Eisenhower, was accompanied by an ice jam so big it threatened the bridges at Main and Brown streets.The Army Corps of Engineers drew up plans to break up the ice with dynamite, then raised the possibility of bombing it, according to Journal & Courier articles.While the discussion about what to do with the ice dragged on, the ice jam broke up on its own without serious consequence.
-- David Smith/dsmith@journalandcourier.com
