Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts
Thursday, April 3, 2008
California Housing Market Collapse....& Comments
L.A. Land: Peter Viles on the rapidly changing landscape of the real estate market in Los Angeles and beyond
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California freefall: Home prices down 26% in February
Signs of distress are piling up in the California housing market, where prices are falling at three times the national rate of decline.
--Statewide, median sales prices fell by a stunning 26% from year-ago levels in February, with home prices dropping at a rate of nearly $3,000 a week, the California Association of Realtors reports. Further, the CAR says the Fed's interest rate-cutting campaign "will have little near-term direct effect on the housing market."
--In the San Fernando Valley, losing a home to foreclosure is now almost as common for families as buying a home. The L.A. Daily News: "During January and February, there were 1,084 foreclosures and 1,335 sales of houses and condos in Valley communities from Glendale to Calabasas, according to the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge.""It's bad. It's really bad," market analyst Nima Nattagh told the Daily News.
The California Association of Realtors reports median prices fell 27.2% from year-ago levels in the hard-hit Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, 30.9% in Sacramento, and 39.1% in Santa Barbara County.
On a percentage basis, the California price meltdown is more than three times as severe as the national decline of 8.2% in median prices reported this week by the National Association of Realtors. On an absolute basis, the California meltdown is even more severe: Nationally, prices fell over the past year at a rate of $338 per week; in California, prices fell at a rate of $2,788 per week.According to the CAR, "The median sales price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during February 2008 was $409,240, a 26.2 percent decrease from the revised $554,280 median for February 2007." The February 2008 median price fell 4.8 percent compared with January’s revised $429,790 median price."The Federal Reserve Bank’s recent action to reduce the federal funds rate will have little near-term direct effect on the housing market," said CAR Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "However, Fed rate cuts should result in more favorable real estate finance rates as we move through the year."
Median home sales prices sometimes exaggerate swings in market activity. A year ago, median home sales prices in California continued to show price gains, even though the market downturn had begun. At the time, the collapse of sub-prime lending had the effect of freezing the lower end of the market. With fewer sales of less expensive homes, the market was dominated by sales at higher price points, and median sales prices showed gains.
The opposite appears to be happening now, as lower-priced foreclosed homes come onto the market, increasing sales at lower price points, while the market for more expensive homes has slowed dramatically. Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.comPhoto Credit: Associated Press
Posted by Peter Viles on March 26, 2008 in Foreclosure Permalink
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Comments
Peter,
Thanks for the post. I just read a few articles about this in the last few days. Here in the Santa Barbara area we are seeing huge reductions in prices in certain areas while others are remaining fairly stable (having reached a bottom seemingly). The problem for us with a lot of these statistics is that they include Lompoc and Santa Maria for Santa Barbara and these markets are very different.
With that said, we are seeing a fair amount of activity in the last 7-8 weeks with a lot of pending sales. No price increases to speak of but a lot of activity. Condos though are still up in the air.
Posted by: Santa Barbara Real Estate Voice March 26, 2008 at 10:40 AM
I am ecstatic to see the collapse of home prices in California...I do feel sorry thought for middle class families that were duped into bad loans.....Yet, it is great to see this collapse in the real estate market happening....
Posted by: John March 26, 2008 at 10:51 AM
More hysterical nonsense.
The drop is related to foreclosures being dumped on the market........skewing the numbers.
Ignore this nonsense
Posted by: Joe smith March 26, 2008 at 10:52 AM
Let's see some more on the positives to come from the CA housing correction.
Greedy idiots will be punished.
What's left of the intelligent and rational middle class will have a higher likelihood of being able to afford a decent home without moving out of state. (A few months ago, you needed a 6-figure household income to afford a home in L.A.'s worst neighborhoods.)
Our politicians will actually have to show leadership and think and make difficult decisions, since they can't just ride along taking credit for the sunshine and ongoing prosperity. (Business punishing laws and taxes, combined with terrible public schools and a high cost of living IS NOT a recipe for sustainable community and economic development.)
Posted by: John March 26, 2008 at 10:54 AM
Median prices were half a million..hahha..What a joke. People don't have that kind of rea money. Living way above their means. I hope they are all homeless for years. They have cost people who do it the rigfht way much now in taxes and stoack market collapse.
Posted by: Mark March 26, 2008 at 10:55 AM
The California prices were inflated and overpriced to begin with. Who wants to live in a liberal state where you are taxed to death, gas prices are inflated due to everyone bowing to the extreme environmentalists?
Sell those houses to graduating students from Berkley....oh wait, you have to be productive human being with a job to get a house.
Posted by: Darrell March 26, 2008 at 10:56 AM
To say that median prices are down 26% does not necessarily mean that every million dollar home is now worth 740K. It could mean that million dollar homes are sitting on the market while 500K homes are selling at a brisk pace. It could mean that there are no more million dollar homes ON the market and all the 500K homes are selling slowly.
The headline alone does not really tell a complete story.
Posted by: Jim Roof March 26, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Who could be surprised by the California real estate price meltdown? Many parts of that market have been grossly over priced for years!
Posted by: Tony March 26, 2008 at 11:01 AM
"the median sales price of median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during February 2008 was $409,240..."
That's still very high, something like three times the national average. CA prices are falling far because they had climbed to such ridiculous levels.
It's bad, but it was an inevitable correction.
Posted by: Dan March 26, 2008 at 11:02 AM
This isn't a big surprise. Home prices were 3 times higher in CA than the national average, it makes sense that they would fall at 3 times the rate. The CA median home price is still double the national average. I think it still has a ways to fall before normal people will be able to buy a house.
Posted by: Etosamoe March 26, 2008 at 11:02 AM
The first stage of a real estate recovery has to be price capitulation, which we are now entering. While painful for the people who bought at inflated prices, the price adjustment to more realistic levels will help people who are now able to buy or will soon. CA home prices got disconnected from reality. Reality is back in Vogue.
How long will it take for the excess unsold homes to get to "normal" levels in So. CA?
Posted by: George March 26, 2008 at 11:04 AM
Sales volume is up dramatically at the low end of the market. The banks are putting their inventory of foreclosures on the market at well below market prices and it has spurred sales. It's not uncommon to see 5 to 10 offers on properties.
All the action is on properties under $500,000 that are priced 25% to 40% lower that two years ago. While sales numbers will be up, the median price is going to plummet when it get's reported for March and April sales.
Posted by: We Help-U-Buy Guy March 26, 2008 at 11:07 AM
Monday, February 18, 2008
Flooding ~ A personal Story
Odd weather: Reality or myth?
Disasters prompt concerns, but experts say worry not
By CURT SLYDERcslyder@journalandcourier.comand DAVID SMITHdsmith@journalandcourier.com
Dennis Kellar of Carroll County moved back into his home along the Tippecanoe River this week after a very expensive winter.
January flooding, followed by more flooding this month, cost him about $25,000 in repairs.
"That's just the house," he said. "I've still got to do the garage."
He wasn't alone.
Because of high water, President Bush declared nine Indiana counties disaster areas. So far nearly 1,000 residents in nine counties, including Carroll, White and Tippecanoe, have applied for federal assistance.
Back-to-back floods, record-breaking heat, killer tornadoes -- these extremes and others are causing many people to wonder if the weird weather phenomena are related -- perhaps the result of global warming.
Kellar goes even farther, speculating that extreme weather may have something to do with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that caused tsunamis, or tidal waves, that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
"Everything's been happening since that big tsunami," Kellar said. "Something is wrong. This is crazy."
Devdutta "Dev" Niyogi, Indiana state climatologist at Purdue University, tries to dispel such clouds of speculation with cold, hard facts. He said that while climate is undergoing long-term changes, other factors are likely causing the Midwest's weird weather.
The most likely culprit, he said, is La Niña -- a cooling of the Pacific Ocean that causes a shift in weather over North America every four to six years.
Higher than normal precipitation and temperature extremes "are the swings we expect with a La Niña type pattern," Niyogi said.
"And we're not out of the woods yet," he said. Niyogi said La Niña could bring additional high precipitation this winter, followed by potentially more violent thunderstorms in spring and summer.
"I'm not a climate change skeptic," he said. "I agree there is some degree of climate change occurring. We need to make cause and effect more clear."
Reality vs. perception
Niyogi said there is evidence that Indiana's growing season has lengthened in the past century. But that subtle shift, very real to farmers, doesn't get the same media attention as floods, tornadoes and other extremes.
"In a sense, we do see general increases in climate extremes. However, we also have a short-term memory. When we see something happen, we think it is the worse that's ever been."
Dave McDowell, director of the Carroll County Emergency Management Department, tends to agree.
"When I was in school, there was the Blizzard of '78," McDowell said. "All the headlines back then read 'Ice Age imminent.'
"There seems to be a shift in the weather every 20 years or so."
McDowell also believes people are making a bigger issue of extreme weather because communities are expanding into formerly undeveloped areas.
"As humanity expands, there are more things to damage," he said.
McDowell believes weather extremes are something that must be anticipated, whatever their cause. This is especially true in flood-prone areas.
Where was the warning?
When Kellar and others along the Tippecanoe River were flooded out Jan. 8, the high water came quickly. The flood occurred after warm temperatures the previous day melted snow and overnight thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain.
Oakdale Dam, a hydroelectric dam not designed for flood control, let the torrent pass through to the Tippecanoe River.
Downstream residents such as Kellar were caught by surprise, in part because the dam's owner, Northern Indiana Public Service Co., failed to trigger a phone alert system designed to warn residents of dangerously high flows.
"Many residents awoke to the sound of water rushing through their homes, after an early-warning system failed," noted Indiana's Jan. 28 application for federal relief, sent by Gov. Mitch Daniels to the White House.
Jim Fitzer, a public affairs manager for NIPSCO, said the dam operator on duty notified emergency and company personnel of the high flows but did not realize residents were not notified warned until the next day.
Fitzer said operating procedures have since been clarified, and the warning system worked properly when flooding returned on Feb. 5.
McDowell is pushing for a three-tiered warning system that would place warning sirens along the river and weather radios in every home along with the telephone warning system.
The cost of sirens could be substantial, potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars. "Right now, I'm trying to figure out how to pay for it," McDowell said.
With adequate warning, residents in the flood-prone areas could move themselves as well as furnishings, clothing and prized possessions out of harm's way.
Kellar agreed that a better warning system is needed.
"We need an early warning system from Buffalo, all the way down the Tippecanoe River," he said.
So far, the damage toll has run into the millions, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In the nine-county disaster declaration area, FEMA has processed 968 applications for disaster assistance from individuals and businesses.
The applications represent $3.1 million in assistance approved so far, an amount that could grow significantly in coming weeks, Sam Ventura, FEMA public information officer, predicted.
Those kinds of numbers tell McDowell that a warning system would be a worthwhile investment. He would like to see FEMA help pay for it, but he has been told such a request may have to go through Indiana's Homeland Security Department.
"If we get the money, I don't see why such a system couldn't be up this summer," McDowell said.
A brief history of Wabash flooding
A Journal & Courier analysis of Wabash River peak levels for the past 108 years suggests that significant flooding -- defined as a river level of 20 feet or more measured at Brown Street -- is no more common now than it was 50 to 100 years ago.Between 1901 and 1954 there were 30 floods in excess of 20 feet, the same number as from 1954 to present.And multiple significant floods in one year are not that uncommon either.The year 1927 saw three separate floods in excess of 20 feet, and during the 11 months between June 1958 and May 1959, three floods ranging in size from 22.4 feet to 26.4 feet occurred in Lafayette.The February 1959 flood, which prompted a national disaster declaration by President Eisenhower, was accompanied by an ice jam so big it threatened the bridges at Main and Brown streets.The Army Corps of Engineers drew up plans to break up the ice with dynamite, then raised the possibility of bombing it, according to Journal & Courier articles.While the discussion about what to do with the ice dragged on, the ice jam broke up on its own without serious consequence.
-- David Smith/dsmith@journalandcourier.com
Disasters prompt concerns, but experts say worry not
By CURT SLYDERcslyder@journalandcourier.comand DAVID SMITHdsmith@journalandcourier.com
Dennis Kellar of Carroll County moved back into his home along the Tippecanoe River this week after a very expensive winter.
January flooding, followed by more flooding this month, cost him about $25,000 in repairs.
"That's just the house," he said. "I've still got to do the garage."
He wasn't alone.
Because of high water, President Bush declared nine Indiana counties disaster areas. So far nearly 1,000 residents in nine counties, including Carroll, White and Tippecanoe, have applied for federal assistance.
Back-to-back floods, record-breaking heat, killer tornadoes -- these extremes and others are causing many people to wonder if the weird weather phenomena are related -- perhaps the result of global warming.
Kellar goes even farther, speculating that extreme weather may have something to do with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that caused tsunamis, or tidal waves, that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
"Everything's been happening since that big tsunami," Kellar said. "Something is wrong. This is crazy."
Devdutta "Dev" Niyogi, Indiana state climatologist at Purdue University, tries to dispel such clouds of speculation with cold, hard facts. He said that while climate is undergoing long-term changes, other factors are likely causing the Midwest's weird weather.
The most likely culprit, he said, is La Niña -- a cooling of the Pacific Ocean that causes a shift in weather over North America every four to six years.
Higher than normal precipitation and temperature extremes "are the swings we expect with a La Niña type pattern," Niyogi said.
"And we're not out of the woods yet," he said. Niyogi said La Niña could bring additional high precipitation this winter, followed by potentially more violent thunderstorms in spring and summer.
"I'm not a climate change skeptic," he said. "I agree there is some degree of climate change occurring. We need to make cause and effect more clear."
Reality vs. perception
Niyogi said there is evidence that Indiana's growing season has lengthened in the past century. But that subtle shift, very real to farmers, doesn't get the same media attention as floods, tornadoes and other extremes.
"In a sense, we do see general increases in climate extremes. However, we also have a short-term memory. When we see something happen, we think it is the worse that's ever been."
Dave McDowell, director of the Carroll County Emergency Management Department, tends to agree.
"When I was in school, there was the Blizzard of '78," McDowell said. "All the headlines back then read 'Ice Age imminent.'
"There seems to be a shift in the weather every 20 years or so."
McDowell also believes people are making a bigger issue of extreme weather because communities are expanding into formerly undeveloped areas.
"As humanity expands, there are more things to damage," he said.
McDowell believes weather extremes are something that must be anticipated, whatever their cause. This is especially true in flood-prone areas.
Where was the warning?
When Kellar and others along the Tippecanoe River were flooded out Jan. 8, the high water came quickly. The flood occurred after warm temperatures the previous day melted snow and overnight thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain.
Oakdale Dam, a hydroelectric dam not designed for flood control, let the torrent pass through to the Tippecanoe River.
Downstream residents such as Kellar were caught by surprise, in part because the dam's owner, Northern Indiana Public Service Co., failed to trigger a phone alert system designed to warn residents of dangerously high flows.
"Many residents awoke to the sound of water rushing through their homes, after an early-warning system failed," noted Indiana's Jan. 28 application for federal relief, sent by Gov. Mitch Daniels to the White House.
Jim Fitzer, a public affairs manager for NIPSCO, said the dam operator on duty notified emergency and company personnel of the high flows but did not realize residents were not notified warned until the next day.
Fitzer said operating procedures have since been clarified, and the warning system worked properly when flooding returned on Feb. 5.
McDowell is pushing for a three-tiered warning system that would place warning sirens along the river and weather radios in every home along with the telephone warning system.
The cost of sirens could be substantial, potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars. "Right now, I'm trying to figure out how to pay for it," McDowell said.
With adequate warning, residents in the flood-prone areas could move themselves as well as furnishings, clothing and prized possessions out of harm's way.
Kellar agreed that a better warning system is needed.
"We need an early warning system from Buffalo, all the way down the Tippecanoe River," he said.
So far, the damage toll has run into the millions, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In the nine-county disaster declaration area, FEMA has processed 968 applications for disaster assistance from individuals and businesses.
The applications represent $3.1 million in assistance approved so far, an amount that could grow significantly in coming weeks, Sam Ventura, FEMA public information officer, predicted.
Those kinds of numbers tell McDowell that a warning system would be a worthwhile investment. He would like to see FEMA help pay for it, but he has been told such a request may have to go through Indiana's Homeland Security Department.
"If we get the money, I don't see why such a system couldn't be up this summer," McDowell said.
A brief history of Wabash flooding
A Journal & Courier analysis of Wabash River peak levels for the past 108 years suggests that significant flooding -- defined as a river level of 20 feet or more measured at Brown Street -- is no more common now than it was 50 to 100 years ago.Between 1901 and 1954 there were 30 floods in excess of 20 feet, the same number as from 1954 to present.And multiple significant floods in one year are not that uncommon either.The year 1927 saw three separate floods in excess of 20 feet, and during the 11 months between June 1958 and May 1959, three floods ranging in size from 22.4 feet to 26.4 feet occurred in Lafayette.The February 1959 flood, which prompted a national disaster declaration by President Eisenhower, was accompanied by an ice jam so big it threatened the bridges at Main and Brown streets.The Army Corps of Engineers drew up plans to break up the ice with dynamite, then raised the possibility of bombing it, according to Journal & Courier articles.While the discussion about what to do with the ice dragged on, the ice jam broke up on its own without serious consequence.
-- David Smith/dsmith@journalandcourier.com
Rain & Flooding hits Commuters in US
Rain, flooding slams morning commute
BY JOHN VALENTI john.valenti@newsday.com
7:29 AM EST, February 18, 2008
The bad news is that we're in for some terrible weather throughout the day Monday: Rain showers. A possible thunderstorm. Areas of dense fog. The possibility of flooding.The good news is that's it's President's Day. Meaning that traffic is light and many people have the day off -- so there are no mind-numbing morning rush-hour traffic jams.Still, the National Weather Service is advising that moderate rain will continue throughout the day with "brief periods" of heavy rainfall. Areas of fog will result in "very low visibilities with hazardous driving conditions," forecasters warn.
BY JOHN VALENTI john.valenti@newsday.com
7:29 AM EST, February 18, 2008
The bad news is that we're in for some terrible weather throughout the day Monday: Rain showers. A possible thunderstorm. Areas of dense fog. The possibility of flooding.The good news is that's it's President's Day. Meaning that traffic is light and many people have the day off -- so there are no mind-numbing morning rush-hour traffic jams.Still, the National Weather Service is advising that moderate rain will continue throughout the day with "brief periods" of heavy rainfall. Areas of fog will result in "very low visibilities with hazardous driving conditions," forecasters warn.
Monday, November 19, 2007
The Dollar's heading for the pits
Tension over dollar-weakness boils over at OPEC summit
Riyadh (dpa) - Tension over the weakness of the US dollar and rising oil prices boiled over Saturday at the opening session of the third-ever OPEC summit, with strident discussion over an Iranian demand that the final summit statement mention the weakness of the US dollar.
The heads of state of the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - meeting in Riyadh for only the third time in OPEC's 47-year history - had on their formal agenda the effect of rising oil prices on poorer nations, climate change and fighting global warming.
But an inadvertently open microphone allowed reporters to eavesdrop before the official opening as oil ministers disagreed over the future role of the falling dollar in determining oil prices.
King Abdullah Abdel-Aziz opened the summit with a pledge that Saudi Arabia would allocate a grant of 300 million dollars "as a seed" for research on climate change, environment and energy resources.
Ironically, the OPEC meeting coincided with Saturday's presentation in Valencia, Spain, by the UN panel on climate change of a report that summarized warnings about the catastrophe that awaits the world if carbon dioxide emissions from burning oil and coal continue unabated.
"I hope that (oil) producing and consuming countries will engage in a similar programme, an endeavour that guarantees the wellbeing of the environment," said the Saudi monarch in his opening speech.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, with quick support from Venezuela, had requested that Iran's "concerns over the weak performance of the US dollar" be mentioned in the summit's concluding statement.
But Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal warned that it could lead to a "collapse" in the US currency. The microphone was cut off after organizers realized the breach.
EUX.TV
Riyadh (dpa) - Tension over the weakness of the US dollar and rising oil prices boiled over Saturday at the opening session of the third-ever OPEC summit, with strident discussion over an Iranian demand that the final summit statement mention the weakness of the US dollar.
The heads of state of the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - meeting in Riyadh for only the third time in OPEC's 47-year history - had on their formal agenda the effect of rising oil prices on poorer nations, climate change and fighting global warming.
But an inadvertently open microphone allowed reporters to eavesdrop before the official opening as oil ministers disagreed over the future role of the falling dollar in determining oil prices.
King Abdullah Abdel-Aziz opened the summit with a pledge that Saudi Arabia would allocate a grant of 300 million dollars "as a seed" for research on climate change, environment and energy resources.
Ironically, the OPEC meeting coincided with Saturday's presentation in Valencia, Spain, by the UN panel on climate change of a report that summarized warnings about the catastrophe that awaits the world if carbon dioxide emissions from burning oil and coal continue unabated.
"I hope that (oil) producing and consuming countries will engage in a similar programme, an endeavour that guarantees the wellbeing of the environment," said the Saudi monarch in his opening speech.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, with quick support from Venezuela, had requested that Iran's "concerns over the weak performance of the US dollar" be mentioned in the summit's concluding statement.
But Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal warned that it could lead to a "collapse" in the US currency. The microphone was cut off after organizers realized the breach.
EUX.TV
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