Blimey ~ The Irish do weather!

Freak weather is becoming the norm

Ireland as a whole is likely to warm by 3-4 degrees by the end of this century, writes John Gibbons

FIRST, SOME good news: despite the atrocious weather of the last week or so, overall Ireland is in fact rated as one of the countries in the world least vulnerable in the medium term to the effects of climate change. That will probably be cold comfort for the motorists battling through flooded roads, farmers unable to harvest their crops or householders mopping out their ruined homes. Ireland has long enjoyed a Goldilocks climate - not too hot, not too cold. While poor summers are not unusual, we have largely been spared the weather extremes endured by many other countries.

Last Saturday's deluge, the most intense in nearly half a century, battered many parts of Dublin and Kildare.

What had been viewed as freak weather events are now rapidly becoming the new climate norms. Computer models for Ireland in the decades ahead show greater seasonal extremes, with autumns and winters becoming as much as 25 per cent wetter with drier, drought-prone summers. Where then do August deluges fit into this model? "Overall summer rainfall is declining; we're getting less rain, but it comes in severe bursts, and that seems to be consistent with what we're seeing here," says Peter Lynch, professor of meteorology at UCD.

These short, sharp episodes of intense rainfall are both difficult to predict and extremely destructive, as they quickly overwhelm drainage systems. "With so much recent building in flood plains, this is causing more instances of severe flooding," says Lynch. Adaptation through improvements in engineering and planning is now essential, he said.

Prof John Sweeney of NUI Maynooth (who also does work for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) pointed out that much of the widescale house-building over the last decade had taken place in low-lying regions. Rivers' natural flood plains are being converted into housing estates and covered in concrete, leading to a loss of land into which flood waters can drain.

However, the Department of the Environment has still not moved to prevent local authorities from allowing houses and infrastructure to be built on flood plains.

The oceans act, in effect, like a giant sponge absorbing the bulk of the extra heating global warming has injected into our system. "The climate system has inertia," says Dr James Hansen of the Nasa Goddard Institute. "But that inertia is not our friend." The great bulk of this tightly coiled climatic spring now resides in elevated ocean temperatures.

It takes an immense amount of energy to warm an entire ocean. Surface temperatures of the Atlantic waters around Ireland are now increasing by around 0.4 degrees per decade, but the Irish Sea has undergone even more dramatic and unprecedented heating, of up to 0.7 degrees a decade.
As the water warms, its energy increases and the hydrological cycle intensifies. According to Prof Sweeney, ocean water temperatures in the region south of Newfoundland where our recent weather systems are forming have increased by an astonishing 5-6 degrees.

Wetter, wilder winters and summers of droughts and downpours are among the medium-term predictions for Ireland in a world of increasingly chaotic climate. Dublin city consumes 550 million litres of water a day. This is set to increase to 880 million litres by 2031 as the city continues to expand. At the same time, water levels in the river Liffey, which supplies 80 per cent of the capital's needs, could be halved by mid-century as a result of global warming.
The capital is facing a 20 per cent drop in its water supply within the next 12 years. The most likely solution will be to extract additional supplies from the Shannon at Lough Ree to make up the deficit.
Ireland as a whole is likely to warm by 3-4 degrees by the end of this century, with the most intense heating in the south and east. Extreme weather will be our constant companion in the decades ahead. Rising sea levels will exacerbate a process which may render many of Ireland's low-lying coastal areas uninhabitable this century.

"Let's just say I wouldn't be buying a seafront property any time soon," Prof Lynch said to me.
In this unfolding century of ever-deepening climate disruption, Ireland, one of the world's most globalised societies, can hardly expect to stand as an island apart, somehow insulated from the unfolding chaos lapping ever more urgently against our own shores.

• John Gibbons is founder of Climatechange.ie. info@climatechange.ie
© 2008 The Irish Times

Monsoon flood risk in ................Britain???

Thousands prepare to evacuate homes over monsoon flood risk... and summer festivals are a washout too
By Daily Mail ReporterLast updated at 11:54 AM on 10th July 2008

More heavy rain is set to batter Britain today as thousands prepared to evacuate their homes after the unusual monsoon weather left a trail of flood warnings.
The deluge yesterday - which saw parts of the country receiving a month’s rainfall in 24 hours - caused a wave of chaos.
The relentless showers caused a string of train delays, smashed sea walls and even turned the annual Buckingham Palace garden party into an ocean of umbrellas.

But despite a brief respite from the misery - with a spot of sunshine for many parts - the downpours, caused by a European monsoon, are set to continue.
Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England are expected to bear the brunt of today’s torrent although showers are expected across much of the UK.
The Environment Agency today had 12 flood warnings and 38 flood watches in place.
A flood watch occurs when it is considered probable there will be minor flooding of land and roads, and a flood warning when it is possible that houses and buildings will be at risk.
The flood warnings are all in south-west England with flood watches covering south Wales and parts of the River Thames.

And with rain set to continue for most of the weekend and showers forecast for next week, festival-goers were being warned to pack their Wellingtons.
In Sussex, 150,000 people at Goodwood's Festival of Speed face three days of downpours when the celebration of motor racing begins tomorrow.
And fans of Scottish rockers The Fratellis are also likely to be swamped by showers when the annual programme of concerts at Somerset House in London begins tonight.
Most areas of southern and central England and Wales should be much drier today than yesterday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers.


But Tony Conlan, a forecaster from MeteoGroup, suggested that those further north could suffer.
He said: ‘There may be heavy showers but it is going to be more localised. There may well be localised flooding.’
Yesterday, the South West was the hardest hit region with 2.8 inches of rain falling - a month’s worth in one day.
Southern and central England and Wales, with rainfall up to 1.6 inches.
The downpours caused problems on the roads, with motoring organisation the AA recording 28 per cent more breakdowns than normal today, mostly weather-related.

Call-outs are expected to top 12,000 for the day, compared with the usual 9,500.
But despite the lack of sunshine, yesterday’s event at Buckingham Palace everyone seemed to be having a good time.
Everyone, that is, except for the Prince of Wales, who grimaced at the grey skies above with a look that said all that needed to be said.
The fact that his mother held a garden party at the Palace the day before and enjoyed perfect, unspoilt sunshine may have had something to do with it, of course.
‘He said "sorry about the weather",’ said one guest, Carol Heading, 62.
'Why he has to apologise for it, I can’t imagine.’

She was one of hundreds of Red Cross volunteers at the event, which marked the centenary of the British Red Cross’s Royal Charter.
Hours later the rain was no respecter of persons, however distinguished, at Sir David Frost’s summer party.
Once again brollies were out, David Cameron struggling with a rather large one, Alan Whicker losing a battle with the wind with his.
Some guests decided to throw style to the wind and wear plastic macs, but cutting a sartorial dash has never been Michael Winner’s strong suit.

Spray: Wet driving conditions yesterday led to 28% more breakdowns