Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Met Office - 16 inches of snow TONIGHT!!!!! in Southern UK!!!!!!!!

Extreme weather warning as Met Office forecasts 16 INCHES of snow across southern England tonight

By SOPHIE FREEMAN
Last updated at 3:46 PM on 05th January 2010

Fears Britain could run out of gas after surge in demand to heat homes
Entire bus networks suspended, binmen diverted to gritting duties
Lorry driver killed, thousands caught up in tailbacks
Two people die in frozen lakes, one man missing
Shoppers begin panic-buying winter food and salt to clear paths
Thousands of pupils told to stay home as snow shuts schools
Business leaders warn of economic impact as staff fail to turn up

An 'extreme weather' alert was issued for southern England today as snow and ice brought transport networks to an abrupt halt.

Heavy snowfall is expected across southern areas of England that have not seen snow so far during this cold spell, as freezing conditions persist across the country.

The heavy snow that has been affecting Scotland and northern England is moving south and the heaviest falls over the next 24 hours are expected across parts of central and southern England and southeast Wales.

Slow drive: Cars trundle along in the snow at Sherburn in Elmet, North Yorkshire today

Slow motion: Cars trundle along in the snow at Sherburn in Elmet, North Yorkshire today

Stranded: A man struggles to push a car up a snow-covered hill in Wetherby, West Yorkshire, today

The Met Office said London and the South-East could expect up to a foot and a half of snow in some places leading to disruption on transport networks and power supplies.

It predicted exceptionally heavy snowfall was expected from around 8pm with 'accumulations of 15 to 30 centimetres (six to 12 inches) and perhaps in excess of 40cm (16 inches)'.

The heaviest snow is likely in the commuter belt of Hampshire, Oxfordshire and Berkshire but up to 10 inches could hit the suburbs of London.

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Such huge falls of snow would be more than four times those seen before Christmas which almost brought London to a standstill.

Tomorrow temperatures will barely rise above freezing.

Derek Turner from the Highways Agency urged motorists to drive safely.

'We are working flat out to keep our roads safe and serviceable for use,' he said. 'However, it is very important to drive appropriately for the conditions; and even when roads are treated and appear ice and snow free they should still be negotiated with care.'

The current cold weather started in mid December and has been the most prolonged spell of freezing conditions across the UK since December 1981. Bitterly cold and wintry weather is forecast to continue for the next couple of weeks with further snowfall expected at times.

A spokeswoman for the Met Office said snow can accumulate on power lines and bring them down, affecting supplies to homes. Similarly, snow can collect on branches of trees and if these snap, they can also bring down power lines.

Scotland and the North of England have so far been the worst hit by the snow today.

Airports have been closed, entire bus services have been suspended in some of the UK's major towns and cities, while motorists have become trapped in tailbacks up to 12 miles long.

More...

It comes as business leaders warn of a major impact on the economy as employees fail to turn up for work during what is predicted to be one of the coldest winters in 100 years.

On the M60 near Bredbury, Greater Manchester, a lorry driver was killed after a collision with another HGV shortly after 10am today, while motorists on the M6 in Lancashire were caught up in 12-mile tailbacks.

White out: Thick snow covers the cars at a dealership in Manchester today

Going nowhere: Thick snow covers the cars at a dealership in Manchester today

Arctic blast: Krystyna Rudzki removes snow from her car before leaving for work as snow causes problems in Davenham, Cheshire

Arctic blast: A young woman removes snow from her car before leaving for work today as the weather causes problems in Davenham, Cheshire

A driver was also treated for shock today after his car skidded on to a level crossing in snow and was then hit by a train. British Transport Police said the 44-year-old managed to get out of his Ford Mondeo on the crossing near Selby, North Yorkshire, before the slow moving train crashed into it shortly after 8am.

The death toll over recent days rose higher after a woman in her 50s was found dead beneath the ice in a frozen pond on a village green. Emergency services were called to Frampton-on-Severn, Gloucestershire, after a dog walker spotted the shape of a body beneath the ice on Sunday.

Bold move: A tourist stands on the frozen ice of Trafalgar Square's fountains in London

In West Yorkshire, a 57-year-old man also died after being pulled from a freezing park lake.

The man, who has not yet been named, was found in the water at Harold Park, Bradford on Sunday night. He was pronounced dead in hospital.

Fears were also growing today for a 36-year-old man who has been missing for two days in freezing temperatures. A major search is under way for Ian Simpkin, from Ripon, North Yorkshire, who left home on foot on Sunday at 10am.

The freezing weather has led to fears that Britain could run short of gas after the National Grid warned power suppliers to use less of the fuel after seeing a 30 per cent rise on normal seasonal demand. It is only the second time such a warning has been issued in 30 years.

It comes as supermarkets report panic buying by shoppers desperate to stock up on comfort food and anti-freeze. Cat litter and salt is also proving popular in icy areas, with customers using it to clear their roads and pathways.

Asda said sales of its thermal underwear had soared by 1,000 per cent, with fire logs up 71 per cent and vacuum flasks up 129 per cent. Wellington boots, puddings and take-away food are also selling well, the retailer said.

Halfords said it had seen a five-fold increase in sales of snow chains, which are attached to wheels to increase road grip, since the cold snap began.

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Six inches of snow is forecast to fall today as the icy blast tightens its grip. The South is expected to see the worst of the weather as heavy winter showers move south across England and Wales throughout the day.

Snow forced the closure of Manchester, Leeds-Bradford and Liverpool airports this morning, while ten train services between London and Leeds on the East Coast Main Line have been cancelled and thousands of school pupils have been told to stay home.

Dozens of schools failed to reopen yesterday and remain closed today, leaving thousands of parents searching for last-minute childcare.

Airports round-up

Manchester: Reopened at 12.30pm, many flights cancelled, severe delays

Liverpool: Now reopened, but with delays and flight cancellations

Glasgow: Open, but delays and cancellations

Heathrow: Open, but check with airline

Gatwick: Open, but check with airline

Luton: Open, but check with airline

Southampton: Open, but check with airline

Birmingham: Open, but check with airline

Leeds-Bradford: Now reopened

In the North West, more than 130 schools have been closed in Greater Manchester, 73 in Lancashire and 116 in Cumbria.

Bus operator Stagecoach said it had suspended many of its services across Greater Manchester because of the conditions, but was trying to operate on main routes into the city.

All proceedings at Manchester Crown Court were cancelled for the day due to the weather, while the city centre resembled a ghost town as shoppers stayed home.

Bus services in Sheffield and Barnsley in South Yorkshire have been suspended until roads are made safe and there are reports of widespread road problems across the county. The centre of Rotherham is said to be 'gridlocked'.

Bin collections have been scrapped in many Northern towns and cities, with refuse collectors diverted to gritting and snow-clearing duties.

Thousands of schools have been closed across Scotland, the North East, Yorkshire and the North West.

Hundreds of schools have also been shut across Wales.

Winter wonderland: Walkers in Allendale, Northumberland after heavy snow fall today

This was the scene in snow covered street in Perth, Scotland this morning

In addition to the London to Leeds rail service cancellations, several London to Glasgow services on the East Coast main Line are currently stopping at Edinburgh. The line operator said it would be operating a revised timetable today due to the adverse weather conditions.

Liverpool John Lennon Airport was forced to close at 5.30am this morning due to heavy snow and ice and a number of flights have been cancelled. The airport reopened shortly after 10am today with heavy delays.

Manchester Airport was also closed earlier today and all flights were suspended until midday.

Budget airline easyJet has cancelled 37 flights on its European network.

Grounded: Flights were suspended at Manchester Airport today as tractors and ploughs attempted to clear the runway

Grounded: Flights were suspended at Manchester Airport today as tractors attempted to clear the runway

On the roads, part of the A66 between County Durham and Cumbria are closed, while snow on the A1 in Northumberland is causing problems for motorists, with extreme caution being urged.

The RAC said it is currently dealing with around 1,400 incidents an hour.

Major sporting fixtures also fell victim to the weather, with Blackburn forced to call off the first leg of its League Cup semifinal against Aston Villa. Manchester City is due to host Manchester United in the other semifinal on Wednesday, but the Eastlands ticket office and ground was closed today.

The Met Office has issued an advisory for heavy snow and ice across much of the UK today, with up to six inches of snow forecast for Hampshire, Dorset, Wiltshire and Oxfordshire tonight.

A postman delivers mail in the snow near the town of Bewdley in Worcestershire today

Jams: Traffic comes to a standstill on the A1 in Newcastle during rush hour this morning

A spokesman said: 'Most places could get some snow, with the showers moving down from the Pennines and Peaks to the South of England by the evening.

'The South could see around six inches on Tuesday evening, while there will be a few centimetres elsewhere.'

Temperatures will plummet to a treacherous -8C (18F) tonight and Wednesday morning, he added.

MeteoGroup forecaster Brendan Jones said the cold spell was 'purely because of the wind direction across the UK'.

'The prevailing wind that our weather comes from is usually from the south-west and west and that means the weather usually comes from the Atlantic,' he said.

'We do get cold spells every winter but, because the weather tends to come from the west, winters are usually mild and wet with occasional cold spells.

The River Tyne freezes over in Chollerford, Newcastle today

Two pictures showing the River Tyne which has frozen over today at Chollerford, Newcastle

A woman and a dog look at the River Tyne

'For the last three weeks, since mid-December, winds have come in from the north and east and everywhere in between.

'It has been the complete opposite of what usually happens.

'The wind has either been coming from the Arctic or from Scandinavia and parts of Siberia - all the cold places.

'Our source of warmer and milder weather has been completely cut off.'

In Scotland, Renfrewshire and Fife Councils said they were being forced to preserve salt stocks and warned of 'significant problems' if supplies were not replenished.

The moves will provoke fears that councils in England and Wales could also run out of grit and salt within days.

The sub-zero temperatures and snow showers are expected to continue until at least the weekend.

Forecaster Stephen Davenport said the: 'This is stretching the limits of short to medium term forecasting but so entrenched is this cold-weather pattern that it seems only a major upheaval in the atmosphere will bring a return to something milder.

The BBC weather map showing the snow moving across central and western areas of England today and then moving further east while blanketing most of Scotland tomorrow

'Should conditions continue in a similar vein then by March we might just be looking back at one of the coldest winters of the last 100 years.'

The warning follows another day of misery for commuters - and an extra day's holiday for up to three million workers who used the freezing conditions as an excuse to stay at home.

Business lobby groups estimated that as many as one in ten failed to make it back into the office yesterday after the two-week festive break.

Northern England and Scotland saw the worst of the winter yesterday as temperatures plunged to -12c (10f).

The Met Office yesterday confirmed that December was the coldest in Britain since 1995. However, despite the chilly snap, the whole of 2009 was milder than 2008 and remained the 14th warmest year in the UK since records began in 1914, it added.

Cross-country: A woman makes her way across heavy snow in Harrogate, North Yorkshire today

The Federation of Small Businesses said it estimates about ten per cent of Britain's workers could not bear to go back to work.

Stephen Alambritis, from the business lobby group, said: 'Some will have had a genuine reason, but many are just trying it on.

'They may have just drunk too much and ate too much over Christmas, and they just can't be bothered to go into work.'

He estimates the cost to the economy will be about £600million from lost productivity and lost taxes.

Other business lobby groups said workers who stayed at home were not being fair on their colleagues or their companies.

A car stuck in central Manchester is pushed out of the snow

Fun in the snow: A woman walks her dog in Cale Green Park, Stockport, this morning

The Forum of Private Business estimated the cost to the economy would be lower, at around £230million, but this is still equivalent to a drop of around five per cent in the country's daily economic output.

Chief executive of the forum, Phil Orford, said: 'There may be cases where some staff members are unable to come into work for legitimate reasons.

'But others have clearly view this cold snap as an opportunity to stay at home with potentially damaging effects on small firms and the economy.

'Small employers need their key staff to be responsible, brave the harsh weather and come in wherever possible.

'It is a case of all hands to the pump, particularly given the recessionary conditions we are still facing.'

Many workers may have tried to get to work but genuinely had trouble with their car, according to the AA.

As news of the gas warning emerged today, Gordon Brown said he remained confident that Britain would manage okay.

'I think Britain can deal with these problems,' he said. 'There are always difficulties when we have a long spell of bad weather. But we can cope.'

John W Farley - Rebuts Cockburn's views

Cockburn on Global Warming: A Rebuttal
by John W. Farley
Journalist Alexander Cockburn once again questions global warming, asking "Global Warming: Farce, Fraud, or Both?" in a syndicated column that appeared on Christmas day in my local newspaper. I usually agree with Cockburn about politics, but I think he's seriously mistaken about global warming.¹
Cockburn puts forward four arguments:
(1) Researcher Michael Mann produced the famous "hockey stick" graph, which Cockburn thinks is erroneous because it omitted the Medieval Warm Period (800-1300 AD), when it may have been warmer than the 20th century.
(2) In an email, climate researcher Kevin Treberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) remarked: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." Cockburn takes this as evidence of a cover-up.
(3) Cockburn thinks that the greenhouse effect violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
(4) Cockburn thinks that the surface temperature of the Earth has decreased in the last eight years, proving that global warming has stopped.
Let's take up these assertions in order.
(1) Michael Mann published the first attempt to reconstruct the global temperature of the Earth over last 1000 years. In their 1998 paper, Mann and co-authors Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes reconstructed the temperature record over the past 1000 years and concluded that the warming in the second half of 20th century is unprecedented in the last six centuries, and perhaps in the last 1000 years.²
Critics charged that the 1998 paper had some subtle flaws in the ways the authors handled statistics. The Mann study was investigated by a special panel of the National Research Council, whose 2006 report concluded that there were shortcomings in the statistics, but that the effect of these shortcomings was small. So the critics were entitled to their quibble, but it made very little difference to the conclusion. In the last decade, at least a dozen other research teams (that did not include Michael Mann) have investigated the same questions, using different statistical methods, and found similar results to those of Mann et al. So Michael Mann and his co-workers got the big idea right.
One common objection to Michael Mann's work is that the Medieval Warm Period (800-1300 AD) does not appear in the "hockey stick" graph. At one time, researchers wondered if the Medieval Warm Period was a truly global phenomenon or only a regional phenomenon. The current thinking among researchers is that the Medieval Warm Period was a regional (European and nearby areas) effect, not a global effect. As a regional phenomenon, the Medieval Warm Period doesn't test our understanding of global climate change and is thus only of mild interest. There is no consensus about the temperature during the Medieval period, because the uncertainties are so large.³
Those who believe that the Medieval Warm Period is very important are making the assumption that there is only one factor determining the climate. If you make that assumption, and if the sole factor is burning of fossil fuels, then our understanding of global warming would be challenged, because of course massive burning of fossil fuels did not happen in medieval times. Some six decades ago, many scientists in fact assumed that only one factor influences climate, although they couldn't agree on what factor, and global climate change was thus not understood. Today we know better: a number of factors influence global climate, including the intensity of the sun, aerosols, the greenhouse effect, Milankovich cycles (changes in the Earth's orbital motion), volcanic eruptions, and other factors.
(2) Kevin Trenberth, researcher at NCAR, said in an email: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." Trenberth did not say (or intend to say) that he doubted the manmade character of recent global warming.
Climate scientists understand the long-term upward trend in the surface temperature of the earth: it's because of global warming, due to the enhanced greenhouse effect arising from increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
What climate scientists do not fully understand are the short-term fluctuations above and below the long-term trend. As part of those fluctuations, energy is transferred between different parts of the earth's climate system: glaciers, polar ice, the deep ocean, etc. Trenberth asks why the January 2008 temperature was unusually low. "Was it because a lot of heat went into melting Arctic sea ice or parts of Greenland and Antarctica, and other glaciers?" Currently we just can't say.
To reiterate: the oft-cited email does not mean Trenberth is doubting the reality of global warming or the manmade cause of global warming. Those concern the long-term trend. Instead, Trenberth was bemoaning the lack of accurate measurements of the energy flows that accompany the short-term fluctuations ("natural variability").
The email by Kevin Trenberth doesn't say anything that is not also said in a published article by Trenberth, which is available online.⁴
(3) Cockburn is impressed by a scientific argument, claiming that the greenhouse effect violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics. He relies on a publication by Gerlich and Tscheuschner (GT), "Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects within the Frame of Physics."⁵ However, the greenhouse effect can be easily demonstrated in the laboratory. The BBC broadcast a tabletop demonstration of the greenhouse effect, which can be found at the BBC website (at <news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8394168.stm>). The video, a little over 2 minutes long, is well worth watching. Physics is an experimental science, and if theory disagrees with experiment, the theory must be flawed.
But beyond noting that the GT theory is refuted by experiment, it is worthwhile examining where GT went wrong. They claim that greenhouse gases in cold upper atmosphere cannot possibly transfer heat to the warmer earth, without violating the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Let's be clear about what Second Law of Thermodynamics does and does not say. Suppose that you have two objects at two different temperatures, and suppose that light (visible or infrared) from either object can reach the other object. There will be a flow of heat from the hot object to the cold object and a smaller flow of heat from the cold object to the hot object. There are thus heat flows in both directions: from hot to cold and from cold to hot.
The Second Law says that the flow of heat from hot to cold is greater than the flow of heat from cold to hot. Hence the net flow of heat is from the hot object to the cold object. Note that the existence of a smaller flow of heat from the cold object to the hot object does not refute the Second Law.
At this point, we return to Cockburn's argument (from GT). Heat flows from the warm earth to the cold atmosphere and also from the cold atmosphere to the warm earth. (Heat also flows from the cold atmosphere to outer space, which is even colder.) The flow of heat from the earth to the atmosphere is greater than the flow of heat from the atmosphere to the earth, so the net flow of heat is from the earth to the atmosphere.
But there is also a (smaller) flow from the atmosphere to the earth. This smaller flow keeps the earth warmer than it would be if there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is what the greenhouse effect is all about. On this point, Cockburn has been misled by GT, who have advanced degrees in physics but have made a serious mistake in thermodynamics.
Readers with a background in physics and calculus can read a comprehensive refutation of the GT paper by Arthur P. Smith, "Proof of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect." Smith's article begins: "The results presented here are not new." Indeed, they are over a century old and found in standard textbooks. Smith has presented the subject in great detail in order to answer objections raised by GT to the treatment found in standard textbooks.
The greenhouse effect has been known for over a century. The greenhouse effect is quite a big effect: the Earth's surface is about 59 F warmer than it would be in the absence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect was entirely natural until the industrial revolution. In the last two centuries, the burning of fossil fuels has added a manmade contribution to the greenhouse effect. It is surprising that the GT paper survived peer review, which is a quality-control policy that makes it harder to publish erroneous papers. Harder, but evidently not impossible.
(4) Finally, Cockburn claims the average temperature has decreased significantly in the last eight years or so. It is important to stress the difference between weather and climate. Weather is short-term behavior, while climate is long-term behavior. Climate is weather, averaged of a period of several decades. The Earth is getting warmer at about 0.2 degrees C per decade, in agreement with models. Any trend over a short time (e.g., only eight years) is weather and not climate. Short-term decreases or increases in temperature are not important for climate; what matters is the long-term trend. The latest data is that the July 2009 sea-surface temperature is the highest sea-surface temperature ever recorded.
Modern climate science explains a great deal of information that would be difficult or impossible to explain in any other way. By way of analogy, consider the central role that evolution plays in biological sciences. Evolution explains a great deal of information that would be difficult or impossible to explain in any other way. Biologists argue about the details of evolution, but not about whether or not evolution is happening at all. Similarly, climate scientists debate the amount and pace of global warming, but very few climate scientists think that global warming is not happening at all.
Of course there still are people who don't believe in evolution, but (with incredibly rare exceptions) they're not biologists. The case for modern anthropogenic climate change has become stronger in recent decades, as the science has improved and as the Earth has continued to warm. I predict that, within a decade or two, those who believe that global warming isn't happening at all will be where the creationists are now.

References
1 This essay is an update of my 2008 article: John W. Farley, "The Scientific Case for Modern Anthropogenic Global Warming,"Monthly Review, July-August 2008.
2 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes,"Global-scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing over the Past Six Centuries," Nature 392 (1998): 779–787.
3 "Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years," National Academy Press (2006).
4 Kevin Trenberth, "An Imperative for Climate Change Planning: Tracking Earth's Global Energy," Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 1 (2009): 19-27.
5 Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner, "Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects within the Frame of Physics," International Journal of Modern Physics B 23 (2009): 275-364.

John W. Farley is a professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. The opinions expressed are his own. His list of links related to global warming (including rebuttals to frequently raised skeptical arguments) can be found at <www.physics.unlv.edu/~farley/links/Global_Warming.html>.