Global Warming & Global Warning

Population - an article by Ray Bodnaruk

2011-06-23T07:45:00.000-07:00

Population

Prepared by Ray Bodnaruk

Let observation, with extensive view
Survey Mankind from China to Peru

Prescribed Learning Outcomes: Social Studies 11 IRP

Identify and use approaches from the social sciences and humanities to examine Canada and the world.
Communicate effectively in written and spoken language or other forms of expression as appropriate to the social sciences.
Demonstrate the ability to thing critically, including the ability to
- Define an issue or problem
- Develop hypotheses and supporting arguments
Gather relevant information from appropriate sources.
Assess the reliability, currency, and objectivity of evidence.
Develop and express appropriate responses to issues or problems.
Reassess their responses to issues on the basis of new information.
Assess the influence of mass media on public opinion.
Develop, express, and defend a position on an issue, and explain how to put the idea into action.
Assess the role of values, ethics, and beliefs in decision making.
Demonstrate appropriate research skills, including the ability to:
- Develop pertinent questions about a topic, an issue, or a situation.
- Collect original data.
- Use a range of research tools and resources.
- Compile and document task-specific information from a wide variety of print and electronic sources.
- Present and interpret data in graphic form.
- Evaluate and interpret data for accuracy, reliability, bias and point of view.
- Understand the nature of and appropriate uses for primary and secondary sources.
Recognize connections between events and their causes, consequences and implications.
Demonstrate awareness of current geographical technology.
Identify elements that contribute to the regional, cultural and ethnic diversity of Canadian society.
Identify major Canadian social policies and programs and their impact on Canadian society.
Recognize the importance of both individual and collective action in responsible global citizenship.
Identify and assess social issues facing Canadians.
Identify and assess cultural issues facing Canadians.
Describe and assess Canada's participation in world affairs.
Identify and assess political issues facing Canadians.
Describe the stages of economic activity, including the acquisition of resources, production and distribution, the exchange of goods and services, and consumption.
Demonstrate awareness of disparities in the distribution of wealth in Canada and the world.
Identify and assess economic issues facing Canadians.
Explain the environmental impact of economic activity, population growth, urbanization and standards of living.
Apply the following themes of geography to relevant issues:
- Location (a position on the earth's surface).
- Place (the physical and human characteristics that make a location unique).
- Movement (the varied patterns in the movement of life forms, ideas and materials).
- Regions (basic units of study that define an area with certain human and physical characteristics)
- Human and physical interaction (the way humans depend on, adapt to, and modify the environment)
Identify the geographical forces shaping Canada's position among nations.
Identify and assess environmental issues facing Canadians.

Terms
Arithmetic Growth	Birthrate
Birth Rate	Boserup
Catton	Census
Census	Demographics
Demography	Doubling Time
Ecological Footprint	Emigration class=Terms
Exponential Growth	Death Rate
Demographic Transition Model	Dependency Ratio
Fertility	General Fertility Rate
Immigration	Infant Mortality Rate
"J" Curve	Malthus
Mortality	Mortality Rate
Natural Increase	Population Change
Population Process	Population Rate of Change
Population Pyramid	Rate of Natural Increase
Rule of 70	"S" Curve
Total Fertility Rate	Urbanization

Introduction

On July 11, 1987, child 5 billion was born into our world. A short 12 years later, child 6 billion arrived on October 12, 1999. On this planet, every second 5 people are born and 2 die - this results in a net increase of 90 million people per year. At this rate, the world's population will double every 40 years! Thus in the year 2040 the earth will have to feed, cloth and house 12 billion people, in the year 2080, 24 billion and so on. However, according to the United Nations, world population is expected to stabilize. Given the varying birth rates through out the world, it is very likely that both child 5 and 6 billion were born in a developing country. As a result, many people see the issue of over-population as being a problem of the developing world that would be solved simply by people having fewer children.

The purpose of this unit is to provide information so that students can develop an understanding of the dynamics surrounding population growth and gain a better understanding of how the developed and developing worlds are inextricably linked.

Population Growth in Vancouver

It took 130 years for Greater Vancouver to reach 1.3 million
It has only taken the last 10 years for our population to increase by 50%
In the last 10 years over 300,000 motor vehicles have been added to our streets - there are 1.3 million vehicles in the Lower Mainland
Does Greater Vancouver have a population problem?

Population Growth - Population Explosion

The explosion of the human population is a relatively recent phenomenon. From the beginning of human history until the early 1800's, population increase was slow and incremental. Not until around 1830 did the earth's population reach a billion people. Roughly one hundred years later the world's population was two billion. Within thirty years, (1960) the world's population reached three billion and in only fifteen more years reached four billion (1975). Twelve years later, in 1987, it edged past the five billion mark. Growing at a rate of about 90 million people a year (roughly three times the population of Canada), the world's population reached 6 billion in October of 1999. Population growth is expected to level off at around 12 billion people by the end of the next century.

Causes of Population Growth

The main reasons for the slow growth of the human population over the millennia prior to the 1830's were disease and famine. Outbreaks of smallpox, measles, diphtheria and scarlet fever, today thought of as very curable diseases, were often fatal - particularly for infants and young children. It was not uncommon for a woman to bear seven or eight children only to see one or two reach adulthood. Furthermore, epidemics of diseases such as typhoid, cholera as well as the plague, would be responsible for the deaths of large numbers of adults.

With the advent of scientific discoveries in the 1800's, it was found that most diseases were caused by infectious agents -- viruses, bacteria and parasites -- spread by contaminated water. Based on this knowledge, improvement in sanitation, personal hygiene, and nutrition, coupled with the discovery of penicillin in the 1930's, led to spectacular decreases in mortality - particularly among infants and children.

Yet, while mortality rates began to decline, birthrates remained high, leading to exponential growth in population.

1.	How many people were there in the world in 1830? In 1930? In 1960? In 1987? In 1999? Why are people concerned about the rapid growth in world population?
2.	How many people are there in the world today? What percentage of this total live in Canada?
3.	What has changed in the relationship between birthrates and mortality over the last two centuries?

Demography

Statistics Canada conducts a major census every ten years in Canada - a national counting of the population. Data collected include physical (age, gender, birthplace) social (marital status, language spoken, level of education) and economic (family income, etc.). The scientific study of the counting of population is primarily referred to as demography. Demography is of primary interest to government and business alike. Governments, among other things, use the data to plan for the building of schools, hospitals, roadways and other infrastructure.

1.	What is a census and how often are they conducted?
2.	What kinds of information are noted in census reports? Why is this data useful?
3.	Suggest reasons why the reliability of census information varies between countries?

Population Change

In order to give governments time to plan for the future, two of the most important sets of data are: population size and rate of change. As some of the world's industrialized countries are declining in population, it is more appropriate to use the term population change instead of population growth. The measurement of population change is simply the increase or decrease actual numbers of a country or region's population. The data below show population changes for Canada and India from 1980 to 2000:

Canada	1990 27 297 000 1980 24 343 000 2 954 000	2000 30 491 000 1990 27 297 000 3 194 000

India	1990 851 790 000 1980 676 200 000 175 590 000	2000 1 014 004 000 1990 851 790 000 162 214 000

The data above indicate the changes in population from 1980 to 1990 and from 1990 to 2000. While it is obvious that the increase in actual population in India was much greater than in Canada, what cannot be judged by the data is the rate at which these two countries grew.

Population Rate of Change (Relative Change)

In order to judge which of the two countries grew at the fastest rate one needs to determine the percent rate of change. The percent rate of change or relative change can be determined by dividing the absolute change in population during the time period by the population at the beginning of the time period. The answer is then multiplied by 100 to give a percent. This, in turn, is divided by the number of years over which the change is measured. For example:

Canada	Rate of Change 1980 to 1990

	2,954,000 x 100 24,343,000	=	12.1 10	=	1.21%

India	175,590,000 x 100 676,200,000	=	25.96 10	=	2.59%

One can see that, for the decade, India's population grew approximately two times faster than Canada's.

1. Determine the rate of change for both Canada and India from 1990 to 2000.

Natural Increase: Doubling Time

Another important demographic measure of a country is the time it takes to double the population. If a country's population takes a relatively few years to double, then it is possible to surmise the potential problems a government might have in trying to meet certain needs such as building enough schools, hospitals or even having an adequate water supply in place. Since relative changes in population (expressed as a percent) may appear innocuous or inconsequential, it is useful to apply the Rule of 70. The rule of 70 is calculated by dividing the percent rate of growth into 70. If a country has a growth rate of 1% its population will double in 70 years. If a country has a growth rate of 4% its population will double in 18 years! Using the rate of change for Canada from 1980 to 1990 (above), the doubling rate can be determined thus:

Canada	70 % rate of growth	=	number of years for population to double

	70 1.21	=	57.8 years

1.	Calculate the doubling time for India based on the percent rate of change from 1980 to 1990.
2.	Find the rates of growth for both Canada and India based on the most recent population data available. Determine the doubling times based on the new data.

The Population Process

Other important demographic information is explained through the population process. This process accounts for the four main factors that affect population change: births (fertility), deaths (mortality), immigration and emigration.

Fertility deals with factors that affect the rate of human reproduction. While mortality deals with the death rate. Important measures of fertility and mortality are: birth rate, general fertility rate,total fertility rate (TFR), death rate, infant mortality rate and rate of natural change. Both birth and death rates can be measures in relative terms - as a percent or in actual numbers.

Birth Rate - the number of live births per thousand population in one year.

For example -- Canada (1999 estimate. source: Statistics Canada)

total live births
total population

x 1000^*

340,891
30,491,300

x 1000 = 11.18 per 1000

* if multiplied by 100 the result is a percentage

General Fertility Rate - the rate of births for the female section of the population between the ages 15 and 49. This is a more meaningful statistic for government planning and data collection than the birth rate as the male portion of the population does not bear children.

total live births
total women aged 15ᇀ

x 1000

Canada (estimated 2000. source: Statistics Canada)

340,891
6,927,000

x 1000 = 49.2^*

* per 1000 female population of child bearing years

* notice this figure is significantly higher than the crude birth rate above and more realistic.

Total Fertility Rate - again a useful statistic to demographers, the total fertility rate or TFR is an estimate of the number of births a woman would have in her lifetime. The TFR is used to determine the necessary level for a population to replace itself. In Canada, one would think that a TFR of two is all that would be necessary for the population to replace itself. However a TFR of 2.1 is necessary as not all children who are born survive. In the developing world the TFR is higher, at about 2.5.

In Canada, since 1972, the TFR has been steadily declining. With a low TFR, Canada's population would eventually decline, as the current population levels would not be maintained. Can you think of a way to increase the population given the low TFR?

Death Rate - similar to the birth rate, the death rate is crude measure of mortality. It measures the total number of deaths in a year per thousand population.

total deaths
total population

x 1000

For example -- Canada (estimate 20000 source: Statistics Canada)

222,425
340,891,000

x 1000 = 7.3 per 1000 population

Infant Mortality Rate - is the measure of the number of infants under one year of age who die each year. This is a useful statistic as it is often included as an indicator of a country's quality of life. Generally speaking, developing countries have a higher infant mortality rate than do developed countries.

total deaths of infants under 1 year
total live births

x 1000

In 1989 Canada's infant mortality rate was 7.9 per thousand. Afghanistan, on the other hand, was 172 per thousand! (Source: United Nations)

Canada	China	Bhutan	Sri Lanka
Infant Mortality Rates

Rate of natural increase - is a reflection of the birth rate minus the death rate for a particular year. This statistic might be used to compare increases or decreases in population over the years. Using the above birth rate and death rate data for Canada, the rate of natural change is 4.4 per 1000 (11.7 - 7.3 = 4.4). To give an accurate picture, net migration rates must also be included in this figure.

Dependency Ratio - is a final important demographic statistic. Dependency ratios are a way of separating the working population from the non-working population. In Canada, the non-working population includes people who are generally considered too young to work, those under the age of 15 (young dependents), and the elderly, those over the age of 65 (old dependents). It is assumed that the non-working population would have to be supported by the working population, thus, too large a non-working population would be an economic burden to the country.

Dependency Ratio

% young dependents + % old dependents
% people of working age

x 100

Using 1981 data, Canada's dependency ratio is:

22.5 + 9.7
67.9

x 100 = 47.5

This means that for every 100 workers there are 47.5 who are dependent on them.

1.	Visit Statistics Canada to determine Canada's dependency ratio based on 1999 data. How has it changed?

Life Expectancy - or the average age a person can expect to live, is an important statistic. On the whole, while life expectancy has increased throughout all countries of the world, it is clear that countries with the greatest increase in life expectancy are found in the developed world. There are many factors which contribute to long life, among them access to reliable food supply, clean water, medical help and education.

Today some countries are experiencing a decline in life expectancy due to unexpected factors such as war, the spread of A.I.D.S and increases in crime rates.

Population Characteristics

Age - Sex Structure/Population Pyramid. To understand population dynamics more completely, one must go beyond increases or decreases in population numbers. We need to consider total numbers of persons, specific age groups and gender.

A population pyramid (above right) is basically two, back-to-back bar graphs. The data on the left gives population data for males and data on the right population data for females. Each bar on the graph represents a proportion of the total population. Each graph covers a specific number of years (five) and is called a cohort. For example, at the base of the pyramid, the first cohort covers age group 0 to 4 years, the second, 5 to 9 years, etc. The bottom of the graph indicates percentages. Altogether, the population pyramid gives a snapshot of the population characteristics of the country which, based on the shape, can give demographers insight into potential problems that the country might face in the future. To get an idea of how Canada's and the United States populations have changed over time visit Statistic Canada's dynamic population pyramid and the U.S.animated population pyramid .

1.	What is shown in a population pyramid?
2.	Go to the US Census Bureau International Data Base . Download and print a population pyramid based on the most recent census for Canada (1996). Next, download and print a population pyramid for Nigeria for the same year. Do the same again for Japan in 1996. Compare the shapes of these three population pyramids. Suggest reasons for why they are so different from one another.

Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) describes the effect on birth and death rates due to social and economic changes over time. The model is based on changes that have occurred in industrialized countries and it is assumed that the model can also be applied to developing countries.

The model is characterized by four stages:

Stage 1 - Primitive

This stage is characterized as having high birth and death rates resulting in low population growth. A country at this stage would have a primitive economy. High birth rates are a result of no family planning, or birth control. As well, there is a high birth rate - many children die in infancy so parents have many children with hope that several will survive. Also, with a primitive economy, many persons are needed to work the land. In many societies, having many children is regarded as a sign of virility. High death rates would mainly be do to disease, famine, poor hygiene and lack of medical knowledge. A population pyramid reflective of this stage would be very short with a wide base.

Stage 2 - Early Expanding

Stage 2 reflects changes in declining death rates due to improved medical science, greater food supply, improved sanitation. Birth rates remain high as traditional social values regarding the need for large families is still in place. Religion may also play a role in maintaining large families. At this stage the difference between the birth and death rates produces (the rate of natural change) is at its greatest. A population pyramid reflecting this stage would show a broad base, but not as broad as in stage 1.

Stage 3 - Late Expanding

In stage 3 there is a decrease in the rate of population change as birth rates fall mainly due to changing social values. Birth control is widely available, there is a lower infant mortality rate due to medical advances, Moreover, the countries are more industrialized thus the need for fewer labourers. Women choose career paths that affect the number of children they are willing to have. Also, there is an increased desire to accumulate material possessions that could not be afforded if families were larger. The corresponding population pyramid for stage 3 shows a narrow base with abroad middle section. Even though both the birth and death rates are declining, there is continued population growth in terms of actual numbers.

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

This stage is typical of a country experiencing zero population growth. Both birth and death rates are close leading to little or no population growth. As the population ages in a country at stage 4, there may be a higher death rate than birth rate leading to a decline in total population numbers. A country in stage 4 will have a very narrow population pyramid.

Stage Diagram Source: Stewart Dunlop, Towards Tomorrow;
Canada in a Changing World; Geography

1.	What is a model? How does the demographic transition model explain what is happening to population numbers of countries around the world?
2.	At what stage in the demographic transition model is population growth the greatest?
3.	At what stage is the total population greatest?
4.	What would happen to the total population if mortality rates were greater than birth rates for over a period of several years?
5.	Explain why mortality rates have fallen before birth rates?
6.	Using the US Census Bureau's International Data Base, identify one country that is currently at each of the following stages in the demographic transition model: Early Expanding, Late Expanding and Low Fluctuating (Zero Population Growth).

Population and Resources

The relationship between population and resources is key. With a clearer understanding of the dynamics of population, it is now possible to look at the potential problems population changes have on the natural resources and the environment. Over time, many people have developed theories to help try explain why population changes and what might happen in the future.

Population Theorists

Malthus's Theory of Population Growth

In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of population on food supply. His theory has two basic principals:

Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc.
Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

The consequence of these two principles is that eventually, population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to support the new population numbers. Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth would be limited when: preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility rate), etc. and positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate.

While Malthus's theories regarding population checks are evident in developing countries, the same is not true in developed countries. Many modern day or "neo-Malthists" are alarmed at the rate of population growth because the many of the Malthusian checks appear to be diminishing as health care and sanitation are improving. Malthusian ideas are often supported by western governments as they highlight the problem of too many mouths to feed, rather than the uneven distribution of resources.

William Catton

A neo-Malthist, William Catton, provides a modern theory to explain the world's current population explosion. Catton's main premise is that the earth has a limited capacity to provide resources for its population. If the population exceeds this carrying capacity then environmental damage will occur, ultimately reducing the carrying capacity itself. According to Catton, we are living beyond our means and using up future reserves of resources. Eventually, our economic systems will collapse resulting in a rapid decline or die-off of population. Catton contends that population will return to level that can be supported but due to the environmental damage already done, the population will not be as great as it was before the die-off occurred.

Esther Boserup's Theory

In contrast to the above, instead of too many mouths to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population. In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more people there are, the more hands there are to work. She argued that as population increases, more pressure is placed on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention. The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and increased yields.

Models

Models are often helpful in illustrating concepts. The models below help in explaining both Malthus's and Boserup's theories.

'J' Curve - Population Crash Model

This follows the ideas of Malthus in so far as the population rapidly expands, reaching the carrying capacity of the land. As the population exceeds this, famine and disease play havoc with the population and it crashes.

'S' Curve - Stabilization Model

This follows ideas of the demographic transition model over time. A low base population is followed by a rapidly expanding one that finally stabilizes at a new high population level.

Source: Longman Reference Guide

Ecological Footprint

Given that humans on earth need air, water, food and mineral resources to survive and given that the earth is capable of producing limited amounts of these resources, it makes sense that if the world's population increases too rapidly it leads to the overuse of resources, resulting in a degraded environment. This idea is not new. However, it has led to a novel approach in looking at the degree to which people on earth consume resources, seeking to understand mankind's ecological footprints' .

The basic idea of an ecological footprint is that as individuals, we all require a certain amount of functioning ecosystem in order to meet our needs. For example, so much farmland has to be maintained in order to produce our food requirements; so much forest to provide oxygen, lumber, etc. and so much fossil fuel to heat our homes and power our vehicles. To help put this in perspective find out the ecological footprint of a large North American city - such as Toronto! . Be sure to check out the "so what?" link.

It is estimated that in order to maintain the world's current population at the Canadian standard of living, we need the equivalent of four more planet earths! To determine an estimate of your own ecological footprint (EF) take the ecological footprint quiz .

1.	Briefly outline Thomas Malthus' theory of population growth and food supply.
2.	Why do Malthus' beliefs appeal to people in developed countries who feel that population growth is only a concern for those in developing nations? What logical objections might people in developing countries have to such notions?

3.	Why is William Catton described as a neo-Malthist? Why does he feel that mankind faces a future catastrophe because of population growth?
4.	Why does Boserup feel that large populations are essentially good?
5.	Do you feel that Catton or Boserup has the best understanding of the impact of population growth on the world today? Why?
6.	What does the term ecological footprint mean? How does your personal ecological footprint compare with that of a teen-aged African Bushman who still lives by hunting and gathering? How does it compare with that of a native teen-ager who lives on a Squamish Band native reserve in North Vancouver? Explain your conclusions.

Distribution of Population

Numbers are not our only demographic concern. Demographers have also noted that populations are becoming increasingly concentrated. Traditionally, this concentration of population has related to the productive capacity of the land. People live where there is sufficient food to sustain them. Stewart Dunlop noted that the land areas of the earth can be divided into fifths - a fifth that is too cold for agriculture, a fifth that is too dry, another fifth is too high or too steep, another fifth has a biological make-up that renders it difficult to settle, and only one fifth of the land surface of the globe is suitable for large-scale settlement.

Mankind has further localized settlement since the industrial revolution. As late as 1920, only about 14% of the world's population lived in cities and towns. Now, more and more people crowd into urban environment. Demographers note that by the year 2005, for the first time, mankind will become an urbanized species, with more of us living in cities than in rural areas. In the developed world this is especially so, as farming is an increasingly mechanized activity that employs as little as 5% of a country's population. Other pursuits in rural areas raise the population of the countryside somewhat, but a concentration of over 80% of a nation's population in urban areas is quite normal in the industrialized developed world.

World's Largest Cities 1900	World's Largest Cities 2015 (projected)
London 6.4 million	Tokyo 28.7 million
New York 4.2 million	Mumbai (Bombay) 27.4 million
Paris 3.3 million	Lagos 24.4 million
Berlin 2.4 million	Shanghai 23.4 million
Chicago 1.7 million	Jakarta 21.2 million

More and more people crowd the world's cities and urban populations are growing most rapidly in the developing nations of the world.

The rate of population growth for the developing world as a whole is 1.9%, but the urban growth rate is much greater, at 3.5%. The World Resources Institute estimates that for every 1% increase in national population brings a 1.7% growth in urban population. Cities, particularly in the developing world, are growing quickly, placing great strain on such infrastructure as water, power and roads. Open spaces are encroached upon as rising property values bring development and squatters simply take over any available room. In most major cities of the developing world skyscrapers reach for the sky and slum housing fans out into the hinterland. Rich and poor share the urban environment, though they do not sleep in the same neighbourhoods. Nowhere is the divide between rich and poor more pronounced than in the huge new cities of the developing world.

Within those urban areas densities may be unbelievably high. In highly urbanized nations, like Singapore, population density is 5,699 people per square kilometer. Canada's figure of 3 per square kilometer might make it appear that our population is extremely spread out, but the reality of life for most Canadians is that they go about their daily business in urban environments not unlike Singapore in terms of population density - the population density of the City of Vancouver is 4,457 per square kilometer. Vancouverites are certainly more likely to live in single family homes than are Singaporeans, but increasing land prices are increasing densities throughout the metropolitan region. It is not unthinkable that in the central core areas of Greater Vancouver, single-family residences will disappear in the next century.

What brings ever more migrants to the cities? Clearly poverty in the city is infinitely preferable to the grinding poverty of rural areas. At least the city offers opportunities to improve one's lot. A living can be eked out recycling garbage on the dumps of Mexico City and enough might be earned to purchase the brushes and polish needed to set up shop as a shoeshine in the business district, the Zona Rosa. Sons and daughters may benefit from an education and enter the workforce in even better jobs. Occasionally people pull themselves out of poverty and even generate wealth; such success stories fill the heads of urban immigrants and motivate them to strive for a better future and endure the hardships of the slums, barrios, favellas or shantytowns of the developing world.

The problem of coping with the unbelievable demands of developing megacities perplexes even the most capable governments. Traffic pollution blackens the air of Bangkok and Mexico City. The Mexicans even restrict drivers to using their vehicles only on alternate days, yet those who can afford it have taken to registering two vehicles so as to continue to drive. The air in Mexico City is so bad that it affects the health of all who breathe it. One's spit is black after a two-block walk

and the mountains that serve as a backdrop are all but invisible through the filthy haze. The situation reminds one of Charles Dickens' London, where an oppressive grime covered everything, the residue of coal-fired industry and coal-heated homes.

Crime also plagues the new megacities. Muggings and break-ins are everyday facts of life in Sao Paulo and Johannesburg, the result of terrible poverty existing alongside enormous wealth.Alcoholism and drug addiction plague the slums of the developed and developing worlds alike.However, it is easy to overstate the problem. Crime is certainly bad, yet it does not necessarily dominate the lives of the millions who live in large urban centers.

Rapid growth puts incredible stress on housing stock. In Hong Kong, old men and the disabled sometimes rent "apartments" that are little more than chicken coops - wire enclosures piled one on top of another. Whole extended families live in on leaky houseboats where someone is obligated to pump water 24 hours a day to prevent their home from sinking. Large extended families share tiny high-rise apartments on Kowloon. People sleep in shifts because there is so little space available - and these are working people, not beggars. Nonetheless, this is no different to life in New York's Lower East Side in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries, where as many as 18 people shared tiny, three-room, 100 square meter tenement apartments. Perhaps the grandchildren of Hong Kong or Calcutta's poor will one day be as amazed by the hardiness of their ancestors as long time residents of Manhattan today.

Cities are marvelous wonders, full of opportunities and amenities. Though Mexico City long ago outstripped its water supply, somehow its inhabitants manage. At the end of the working day in the Zona Rosa the businessmen go home to their palatial residences and drink beer and mineral water. The poor emerge From their hiding places and set up their cardboard mattresses in the entr nces of the darkened office towers as their children beg for water that they bring to their make-shift homes in old bleach bottles. It may seem terrible to us, but it is a world filled with hope for them. In Cairo, Egypt, squatters long ago appropriated the tombs of long-dead Cairenes. Now, a generation or two later, television antennas sprout from tomb roofs. The streets and shops offer a marvelously entertaining vista for all to enjoy. More importantly, city streets offer freedom from the bonds of rigid class-bound rural societies, where rural bosses and landlords no can no longer force their will upon all. The medieval European saying that "town air makes men free" is not just a quaint old saying in the developing world.

1.	How much of the Earth's land surface is suitable for large numbers of people to live on?
2.	When is it expected that more than 50% of the human race will live in towns and cities? How does this compare with the situation in 1920?
3.	In 1900, the world's 5 most populous cities were all in the developed world. How many of the top 5 cities are expected to be in the developed world in 2015?
4.	Why are people flocking to cities in the developing world? Why don't they remain in rural areas?
5.	What pressures are being placed on cities in developing countries as a result of this rapid population growth?<

Further Thought


Population Pyramids:		Use the population data for the two countries below to construct population pyramids on graph paper.

	Country A		Country B
Cohort	Male	Female	Male	Female

0 - 4	2.6	2.4	5.8	5.6
5 - 9	2.9	2.7	5.8	5.7
10 - 14	3.7	3.5	5.7	5.5
15 - 19	4.1	3.9	5.6	5.4
20 - 24	4.3	4.2	5.4	5.2
25 - 29	3.9	3.8	4.6	4.5
30 - 34	3.4	3.4	3.9	3.9
35 - 39	3.4	3.4	3.1	3.1
40 - 44	3.2	3.2	2.4	2.7
45 - 49	3.2	3.3	2.2	2.4
50 - 54	3.0	3.2	2.0	2.0
55 - 59	2.9	3.1	1.7	1.8
60 - 64	2.7	3.0	1.4	1.5
65 - 69	2.6	3.0	1.1	1.2
70 - 74	1.9	2.4	0.7	0.8
75 +	3.6	5.8	0.9	1.3
	total population 58,789,000		total population 56,345,000
Note:	All data are percentages of total population.
Source:	U.N. Demographic Yearbook.

Questions:

1.	Based on your understanding of the Demographic Transition Model, indicate which stage of the DTM the two population pyramids represent.
2.	Identify the main social and economic characteristics of the two counties above.
3.	Estimate the number of people, both male and female for your cohort.
4.	Calculate the dependency ratios for both countries.
5.	What can be said about the life expectancy for the two countries?

Fertility and Education: A Statistical Analysis

Demographers often look for relationships in the data they analyze. If, for example, life expectancy could be related to the level of wealth of a country, then it might be a desirable goal of governments to try to increase the economic productivity of a country so that people could enjoy a long life. One way to look for relationships among different data is to construct a scattergraph. Scattergraphs graphically show the nature of the relationship between two different variables or sets of data.

If the plotted data form a linear pattern to the right or left, then there is a strong relationship between the two variables. If the pattern slopes upward to the left, then there said to be a negative (or inverse) relationship. If the pattern slopes to the right, there is said to be a positive relationship as in the following example:

Drawing a scattergraph involves drawing two axes, an x axis and a y axis - just like in math - and plotting the given data. On a piece of graph paper, construct a scattergraph using the data in the table below: (Be sure to appropriately lable the axes.)

Country	Total Fertility Rate	Female Literacy Rate %
Afghanistan	6.8	14
Australia	1.9	99
Bolivia	4.8	71
Canada	1.7	99
Ecuador	3.7	84
Germany	1.5	99
Guatemala	5.4	47
India	4.0	34
Jamaica	2.8	99
Mexico	3.3	85
Rwanda	8.3	37
United Kingdom	1.8	99

Source: U.N.

Questions:

1.	Based on the plotted data above, describe the type of relationship that exists between the data.
2.	In your own words describe the role education (female literacy) plays on population growth.
3.	Suggest reasons why women educated in developed countries would want fewer children.

Bibliography - Population

Brown, Lester, Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil. "Population." Worldwatch.

Burtenshaw, David. A-Level Geography: Longman Reference Guides. Longman Group UK. 1990.

"Calculate Your Ecological Footprint. MECo-op. Mountain Equipment Co-op. Redefining Progress. 2000.

"Chapter 5. Results of the Survey." City of Vancouver.City of Vancouver, June 1996.

Coutsoukis, Photius. "Population Density - Persons per sq. km." http://www.geographic.org/. (data source, 1999 CIA World Fact Book) April 30, 2000.

"Demographic Yearbook." United Nations Statistics Division. 1998.

Dunlop, Stewart. Towards Tomorrow: Canada in a Changing World: Geography. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Toronto, 1987.

Elbel, Fred. "Population and Sustainability." July 7, 2000.

"Global Population Stabalization Program." Population. The Sierra Club.

Goekler, John. "Facing the Future: People and the Planet." 1999.

"Infonation." The United Nations Cyber School Bus. United Nations, 2000.

"International Data Base." US Census Bureau. May 10, 2000.

Jensen, Richard."World Population: A Guide to the WWW." Regents College, New York June 29, 2000.

Malthus, Thomas. "An Essay on the Principle of Population." J. Johnson, London, 1798. Rendered into HTML format by Ed Stephan, August 10, 1997.

Molyneux, John and Mackenzie, John. World Prospects: A Contemporary Study 3^rd Edition. Prentice Hall Canada, Scarborough,1994.

"Over-population Theme Page.CLN Community Learning Network.October 1, 1999.

Peron, Jim."The Real Population Problem. IntellectualCapital.com. October 22. 1998.

"Population." Geography.com. 2000.

"Population Index On the Web." Office of Population Research, Princeton University.

"Population Issues." Environmental Topic Lists. Harvard Environmental Ethics and Public Policy Program.

"Population Matters." www.popinfo.org. Facing the Future - People and the Planet. May 5, 2000.

"Population Research Center." Rand Population Research Center.2000.

"Resource Source." The United Nations Cyber School Bus. The United Nations. 1999.

Singer, Max. "Demographics: The Population Surprise." The Atlantic Monthly. August, 1999.

Stanford, Quentin. The Global Challenge: A Study of World Issues. Oxford University Press, Toronto, 1990.

"Toronto's Ecological Footprint." Energy Efficiency. City of Toronto. 1998.

"Treading More Lightly on the Earth: By Reducing Your Ecological Footprint." World Wildlife Fund Canada. 1998.

"United Nations Population Fund." United Nations, 2000.

Waugh, David. Geography: An Integrated Approach. Thomas Nelson and Sons UK, 1995.

"Welcome to npg.org." Negative Population Growth.February 17, 2000.

"Welcome to Statistics Canada." Statistics Canada. 2000.

"World Population Slide Show." Geography Slide Shows. PRB. 1991.

"World Population Trends." United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 1999.

"World Resources Institute." World Resources Institute, Washington, August 30, 2000.

"Worldwide Directory of Population Institutions." Population Information Network (POPIN) United Nations. August 24, 2000.

"Zero Population Growth." Zpg.org. 2000.

End of Chapter - Would you like to go
[Back to Index] [Proceed to 'Rich & Poor']

The Plot Thickens

2011-06-21T12:16:00.000-07:00

A True Inquiry Into Climate & Weather (2/2): The Plot Thickens

by KIM GREENHOUSE on NOVEMBER 14, 2009

in ACADEMIA,CLIMATE CHANGE,ENVIRONMENT,OCEANS,PHYSICS,SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,WEATHER

Dr. Willie Soon

The plot really does thicken as we continue our inquiry into climate and weather. The verifiable data offered in this interview is both fascinating and disturbing. Astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics) and climatologist Dr. David Legates (University of Delaware) brief us on key scientific data that cannot be overlooked or dismissed.

This conversation covers an extensive array of climate topics, including the sun’s role in the global climate system, the obstruction and politicization of science, and an honest look at polar bear populations.

Dr. David Legates

I deeply appreciate the gift of real knowledge that these men have brought us. Speaking with clarity and passion, they identify numerous factors that leave the average activist and global warming advocate with a totally different understanding of what is really occurring. They display a rare courage in standing up for the integrity of verifiable science as they continue to speak truth to power against vicious attacks. Tune in and explore this incredibly complex field of inquiry with us!

Listen using the player above, or: click here to download as a podcast

Cyclic!!!!!!!!

2011-06-21T12:12:00.000-07:00

It's a cycle, it's a cycle, it's a cycle!

A True Inquiry Into Climate & Weather, Part 1: A Hot Potato

Humans have nothing to do with it

3 Nov 09 - Listen to this eye-opening interview with author Robert Felix,
climatologist Dr. Timothy Ball and meteorologist Joe D’Aleo on
"It's Rainmaking Time! with Kim Greenhouse"

About the participants

Dr. Timothy Ball is a renowned environmental consultant and retired climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg. Dr. Ball has a B.A. from the University of Winnipeg, an M.A. from the University of Manitoba in 1970 in Geography, and a Ph.D. in climatology from the University of London, England.

Joseph D’Aleo, executive director of http://icecap.us, was the first Director of Meteorology at the cable TV Weather Channel. A former college professor of meteorology, D’Aleo has served as a member and then chairman of the American Meteorological Society’ Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, and has co-chaired national conferences for both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association.

Robert W. Felix, author of two internationally acclaimed science books - Not by Fire but by Iceand Magnetic Reversals and Evolutionary Leaps - is the host and creator of www.iceagenow.com and www.evolutionaryleaps.com. He has given more than 300 radio interviews in the U.S. and Canada presenting his view that the next ice age could begin any day.

Kim Greenhouse is host and creator of www.itsrainmakingtime.com. Kim is a communications steward, pioneer, and rainmaker for a better world who loves to bring new knowledge and unique opportunities to those who are ready, willing, and receptive.

        Thanks, Kim, for the huge amount of work that you've put into this, not
        only for conducting the interview, but for all of your homework and for
        taking the time to read both of my books prior to the interview. If only
        other hosts were that conscientious.
If the banner link doesn't work, you can click here to go to the interview:
http://itsrainmakingtime.com/2009/climate-part1/

* * *

The Ice Age Cometh - HUMAN EVENTS

2011-06-21T12:02:00.000-07:00

The Ice Age Cometh - HUMAN EVENTS

India PM's Three- nation Tour And Its

2010-11-01T07:55:00.000-07:00

India PM's Three- nation Tour And Its

Global Warming theory up in Flames

2010-10-26T05:21:00.000-07:00

Global Warming theory up in flames: Can increased solar activity expected in 2012 actually cool the earth?

October 07, 2010 09:37 PM EDT

views: 289 | 1 person recommends this | comments: 1

The theory or Global Warming seems to be going up in flames as reports emerge which state that increased solar storms in 2012 and 2013 will actually coll the earth, not warm it.

The new research, which is based on a three-year snapshot of time between 2004 and 2007, suggests that the earth may cool as sun activity increases. This may prove to be ammunition for Global Warming sceptics.

As solar activity lessened at the end of one of the Sun's 11-year cycles, the new data shows that the amount of energy reaching the Earth at visible wavelengths rose rather than fell. Scientists believe it may also be possible that during the next up-turn of the cycle in 2012, when sun activity increases, there might be a cooling effect at the Earth's surface.

If the new findings apply to long as well as short time periods, this could translate into a small degree of cooling rather than the slight warming effect shown in existing climate models. It would effectively take all of the knowledge we've been told about Global Warming and throw it out the window.

This brings to light the question of whether this whole Global Warming theory is real or fabricated to make money on things like electric cars and solar panels. Obviously, there is a need to conserve and help our planet - which we're pretty much killing slowly - but it seems as though the political talk of Global Warming may be one of the biggest scams of the century. So, who do we believe? The scientists who have done the research or the politicians trying to sell Global Warming as a new way of living in a warmer world?

According to Micheal Lockwood, a space physicist at the University of Reading, "All the evidence is that the vast majority of warming is anthropogenic. It might be that the solar part isn't quite working the way we thought it would, but it is certainly not a seismic rupture of the science."

Hal Lewis says it all about Global Warming SCAM!

2010-10-26T05:18:00.000-07:00

0 OCTOBER 2010 | POSTED BY: TOM RICARDO | NO COMMENT

Here is one man from academia the activists will love. Hal Lewis, Professor Emeritus of the American Physical Society (APS) resigned in disgust over the ‘Global Warming Scam’. Lewis gave up his cushy job and stepped forth to reveal how the billions of dollars being pumped into the system had corrupted scientists.

Top physicist Hal Lewis said that the climate change scam is the biggest ” pseudoscientific fraud” he has seen in his illustrious career. The global warming brouhaha was to pull the wool over the people’s eyes, a rogue trend that had eaten into the integrity of the American Physical Society. He refered to the ClimateGate documents as proof of the billion dollar dupe, which has also been compiled in Montford’s book on the subject.

In a letter to the American Physical Society published by UK’s Telegraph, Hal Lewis reviles fellow physicists wedded to show me the money research, with lucre being the driving force , as Eisenhower has warned against.

Professor Lewis , in his letter, harks back to the glorious days when he chaired the Reactor Safety Study by the APS and scientists gave an impartial thesis under immense pressure and derision from corporate money-bags. He hailed the unimpeachable scholarly credentials of the erstwhile oversight committee which has eminent physicists like Pief Panofsky, Hans Bethe, and Vicki Weisskopf.

He branded the APS a sell-out ,saying it was a shame to be part of the corruption-ridden institution, and that he was forced to hand in a resignation, given the current situation.

Image Credit: global warming

Science Becoming Religion by Reasonmclucous

2010-10-26T05:14:00.000-07:00

Science Becoming Religion

Posted by Reasonmclucus October 25, 2010 at 10:41 p.m.

Tea Partiers Smarter than Democrats

The dumbest criticism the Democrats' media sheep make of Tea Party members is that Tea Partiers don't accept the global warming nonsense that most Democrats and their media sheep have fallen for.

Most Tea Party members aren't climate experts, but they are smart enough to recognize a political con when they see one. In business cons, police warn that if something sounds too good to be true it probably is. In political cons, if something sounds too bad to be true it probably is too bad to be true.

Like most con artists, the people attempting to continue Enron's global warming scam try to oversell their claims. The global warming scammers are essentially saying that if we don't stop producing the "evil" gas carbon dioxide God will flood the world like he did in the time of Noah.

Supporters of Enron's global warming scam falsely claim that carbon dioxide (CO2) possesses some magical power to increase the temperature of the atmosphere by interacting with low energy infrared radiation (IR).

In the 90's Enron paid scientists and so called environmental groups to claim that an increase in atmospheric CO2 would cause significant temperature changes even though CO2 comprises less than 0.04% of the atmosphere. Enron even wrote the Kyoto Accords for the Clinton administration.

Enron wanted the opportunity to make a fortune by trading what the company called "carbon credits". Enron had previously made a fortune trading sulfur dioxide credits under a program set up to allow northeastern power plants to continue producing the pollution associated with acid rain.

People who are unfamiliar with science don't understand that western science has long been infected with con artists. In the Middle Ages "Alchemists" obtained money from wealthy nobles by claiming to be working on a method of turning a base metal like lead into gold.

Some of the more popular science scams today involve miraculous medical treatments and machines that use little or no energy.

Today's scientists don't trust each other to be truthful. Science journals require "peer review" of articles to discourage writers from publishing phony results that seem to support their theories. Attorneys in court often question whether a scientist witness has been paid to testify a certain way.

Scientists who have trouble getting money for legitimate research may feel they have no choice but to adjust their research and statements to conform to the desires of the businesses or political organizations that offer them money.

Many of the global warming "scientists" who call themselves "climatologists" lack the qualifications for making such claims. The only qualifications most of them have are for predicting short term weather.

Understanding the way climate changes over time requires a background in astrophysics and the operation of earth's complex energy system as well as an understanding of weather patterns.

The Milankovich cycles are the primary factors causing climate. Changes in the earth's tilt on its axis determine how temperatures change from one season to another. Changes in the sun's output affect short term changes in air temperature .

Those familiar with thermodynamics know that physicist R.W. Wood disproved the claim that greenhouses and the atmosphere stayed warm by reflecting IR.

Those who support the claim if global warming don't talk like scientists.

Real scientists don't use terms like "settled science" or "consensus" when talking about their theories. "Consensus" is a political term not a scientific term Scientists don't rely on consensus because the consensus view has been wrong before. In 1895 the consensus among physicists was that atoms were the smallest particles of matter. The consensus was proved wrong when Sir J.J.Thomson reported his discovery of the electron.

Priests suggest their statements represent matters that are "settled". Real scientists qualify their claims and look for additional tests to make to see if they have missed something. Scientists who believe they may have an accurate model of the nucleus of atoms are using the Hadron Collider to determine if they might have missed something.

I learned in high school that when scientists conduct experiments, they should mention conditions that could reduce the accuracy of results. Those who claim global warming ignore the likelihood that the 0.25% change in temperature during the 20th Century might indicates nothing more than the use of different equipment.

Real scientists use mathematically rigorous methods. The people who claim global warming rely on the mathematically meaningless term called "average global temperature".

Priests use terms similar to "denier" and "contrarian" to describe heretics who question their statements. Scientists provide.the results of experiments and observations to refute critics.

Contrary to the statements of President Barack Obama and various energy companies, there is no such thing as clean energy. Large wind generators kill birds and many believe they are visual pollution. The companies that produce solar cells in China are heavy polluters. Using solar energy to heat water to produce electricity requires large amounts of water.

Carbon dioxide is the most essential molecule in the atmosphere. Plants need it to convert solar energy into the bonds that hold complex carbon molecules together. Humans and other animals then use those carbon molecules for food.

Animals than return part of the carbon to the atmosphere as CO2 to be used by plants to complete the carbon cycle. Unfortunately, humans remove large amounts of plant carbon from the cycle by using plant products for items like clothing and paper in which the carbon isn't returned to the atmosphere. Some unused portions of food products are put in landfills instead of the carbon being returned to the atmosphere. We actually need to use fossil fuels to replace the carbon that we remove from the carbon cycle.

I have various posts on this blog exposing flaws in the global warming scam. I also have a Global Warming, Not Blog that primarily only has global warming type posts.

Ken Buck is right about global warming (vote here in poll) | ken, buck, statewide - Opinion - Colorado Springs Gazette, CO

2010-10-26T05:10:00.000-07:00

Ken Buck is right about global warming (vote here in poll) | ken, buck, statewide - Opinion - Colorado Springs Gazette, CO

Rivers at a crossroads!

2010-09-30T10:09:00.000-07:00

Rivers serving 80pc of world's population under threat

2010-09-30 13:50:00

Researchers have revealed that multiple environmental stressors, such as agricultural runoff, pollution and invasive species, threaten rivers that serve 80 percent of the world's population, around 5 billion people.

These same stressors endanger the biodiversity of 65 percent of the world's river habitats and put thousands of aquatic wildlife species at risk, according to researchers from The City College (CCNY) of The City University of New York (CUNY), University of Wisconsin and seven other institutions.

The findings come from the first global-scale initiative to quantify the impact of these stressors on humans and riverine biodiversity.

The research team produced a series of maps documenting the impact using a computer-based framework they developed.

"We can no longer look at human water security and biodiversity threats independently," said the corresponding author, Dr. Charles J. VÃ¶rÃ¶smarty.

"We need to link the two. The systematic framework we've created allows us to look at the human and biodiversity domains on an equal playing field," he said.

The framework offers a tool for prioritizing policy and management responses to a global water crisis.

"As is the case with preventive medicine, our study demonstrates that diagnosing and then limiting threats at their local source, rather than through costly remedies and rehabilitation, is a more effective and sensible approach to assure global water security for both humans and aquatic biodiversity, " notes Professor VÃ¶rÃ¶smarty.

Among the stressors analyzed were the effects of pollution, dams and reservoirs, water overuse, agricultural runoff, loss of wetlands and introduction of invasive species.

High incident threat levels to human water security were found in developed and developing nations around the world.

Affected areas include much of the United States, virtually all of Europe and large portions of Central Asia, the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent and eastern China.

A strategy called integrated water resource management, which balances the needs of humans and nature, would best meet the dual challenge of establishing human water security and preserving biodiversity in the developing world.

The findings were reported in the September 30 issue of Nature. (ANI)

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EPA vs. Maine’s Sustainable Energy Industry, Cont. - By Greg Pollowitz - Planet Gore - National Review Online

2010-09-30T10:05:00.000-07:00

EPA vs. Maine’s Sustainable Energy Industry, Cont. - By Greg Pollowitz - Planet Gore - National Review Online

What happens as we run out of oil?

2010-09-30T10:01:00.000-07:00

Transition from oil is bound to run into troubled waters

Published on 29 Sep 2010

Oil is filthy stuff.

So much was obvious, even to the purblind, long before the Deepwater Horizon explosion turned the Gulf of Mexico into a noxious sump. Oil stinks to high heaven.

Oil fed through internal combustion engines fouls our air and poisons our children. Oil underpins obnoxious regimes and distorts the global economy. The finding and getting of oil is synonymous with corporate theft. And oil, above all, is warming the planet with consequences guaranteed to dwarf any conceivable benefit.

We should stop using the stuff. Even those who are sceptical of man-made climate change, or content to believe that the catastrophe will be someone else’s problem, can grasp that. The struggle to control a diminishing resource at any cost is a mug’s game. The wars, even if we do not use the word, have already begun.

The oil that was everywhere a century ago is hard to come by now. That was the lesson a car-obsessed America – and the rest of us – refused to grasp when BP’s rig blew in the Gulf of Mexico.

Most of the countries with most of the remaining oil are unreliable at best, unpleasant at worst. The alternatives are, as the industry might say, challenging.

So big oil hunts in places that were once uneconomic. They drill, these days, in the deepest waters, in brutal climates, where nature is wild and almost pristine. They promise to do no harm and they promise, just as BP promised, to manage any risk. Our trust in these endeavours, where it survives, is as remarkable as it is stupid.

But what are we supposed to say? A Coalition Government manned by environmentally-friendly LibDems says we must wean ourselves from fossil fuels. The same Government encourages – or does not discourage – Chevron from exploring the deep waters west of Shetland. The clear intention, as other firms queue for exploration licences, is to extract oil from 1600 metres below the sea’s surface. After Deepwater Horizon, that doesn’t sound too clever.

Environmentalists, busy Greenpeace protesters in the lead, will tell you as much. The frenzied, dangerous search for disappearing oil, they will say, is only making matters worse. An SNP Government confident that Scotland will derive all its energy from renewable sources by 2025 might lead you to believe, meanwhile, that there is no longer a need to gouge the seabed beyond Shetland.

It’s seductive. The world would be a better place without big oil and the petrodollar regimes. Global warming is not a fiction, a scam or a joke. We should be managing the transition from fossil fuels, as greens demand, if only to extinguish the mad conceit of an inexhaustible planet. If we fail, the consequences will be unspeakable.

I agree with every word. I agree until that supreme, petty parochialism common to all but the most dedicated kicks in. I’m sitting in a house whose heating system – not my choice, but expensive to replace – runs on oil. I can’t get from A to B, even with modest intent, without some version of the stuff. My food, your food, and most other things, depend on oil-based transport. So how would “transition” work?

Those who protest professionally on the future’s behalf argue that oil exploration, and hence extraction, must stop now, instantly, before it’s too late. Simple as that. These people are admirable examples of candour, mostly, but they stumble over one question: then what? This is rarely explored.

Alex Salmond, First Minister, is as sincerely supportive of renewable energy as any politician in these islands. As a former oil economist, he grasps the issues, past and present. As a nationalist, and rational, he views the prospect of an energy-independent Scotland – an energy-exporting Scotland, indeed – as a great prize. But he can do his sums where “transition” is concerned.

Mr Salmond, like others, comes up with a figure of £200bn as the required (private) investment needed to secure a renewable future. The First Minister reminds us that big oil conjured an equivalent sum to open up the North Sea’s oil and gas industries. But what obliges those firms to make the effort now, when profits can still be had from the black stuff and when, crucially, few of us possess workable alternatives to our oil-fired lives?

We’re stuck with fossil fuels, for now, in a million common, mundane ways. We were suitably horrified, of course, by the Gulf of Mexico disaster. We understand, some of us, that the need for a little more oil for just a little longer amounts to an excuse, a way to delay the inevitable transition, a guarantee that our lives and our world will be worse off in the long run. But after last winter, snow piled at the door, I won’t be switching off the heating. Sorry.

Renewables are imperfect. It should not be left to the oil lobby and its mouthpieces to say so. Wind farms, on shore or off, have their own environmental consequences and vast financial costs. The energy they supply isn’t cheap and is not, without going into arguments over base loads and the rest, entirely reliable. Solar is beyond the reach of most. Nuclear is troubling, yet probably inevitable.

Greens need to say what they really mean: the transition they have in mind is towards a kind of permanent energy austerity, with all the inequalities implicit in enforced rationing. The perplexed majority should be equally honest: it’s not going to happen. Energy efficiency is rational. But each time I look at a website or a magazine dedicated to environmental activism, I smell the paradox. What, other than passion, fuelled those energy-guzzling efforts? Oil.

If some future well explodes west of Shetland we will all know who to blame. Big oil should never be trusted. But big oil relies on its dependants, its clients, customers and patrons. That would be us, and our governments, each with our needs and necessities.

The choice between transition and catastrophe is too simplistic. There is such a thing, after all, as a catastrophic transition.

Like I said, crazy feeding on crazy

2010-09-30T09:57:00.000-07:00

Like I said, crazy feeding on crazy

Biggest Problem facing Humanity........

2010-07-06T12:41:00.000-07:00

Population Growth Is Still The Biggest Problem Facing Humanity

A A A

The Oil Drum | Jul. 4, 2010, 10:01 AM | 3,194 | 66

This is a guest post by Gary Peters, a retired geography professor with a long time interest in population issues.

Earth’s population is approaching seven billion at the same time that resource limits and environmental degradation are becoming more apparent every day. Rich nations have long assured poor nations that they, too, would one day be rich and that their rates of population growth would decline, but it is no longer clear that this will occur for most of today’s poor nations.

Resource scarcities, especially oil, are likely to limit future economic growth; the demographic transition that has accompanied economic growth in the past may not be possible for many nations today. Nearly 220,000 people are added to the planet every day, further compounding most resource and environmental problems. The United States adds another person every eleven seconds. We can no longer wait for increasing wealth to bring down fertility in remaining high fertility nations; we need policies and incentives to stop growth now.

Much has been written about population growth since the first edition of Malthus's famous essay was published in 1798. However, an underlying truth is usually left unsaid: Population growth on Earth must cease. It makes more sense for humans to bring growth to a halt by adjusting birth rates downward in humane ways rather than waiting for death rates to move upward as the four horsemen reappear. Those who think it inhumane to control human fertility have apparently never experienced conditions in Third World shanty towns, where people struggle just to stay alive for another day.

In 1970 Norman Borlaug won the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on developing new plant strains that formed the basis for the Green Revolution that began in the 1960s. However, in his Nobel acceptance speech Borlaug perceptively commented that "There can be no permanent progress in the battle against hunger until the agencies that fight for increased food production and those that fight for population control unite in a common effort. Fighting alone, they may win temporary skirmishes, but united they can win a decisive and lasting victory to provide food and other amenities of a progressive civilization for the benefit of all mankind." That was four decades ago. During that time the world's population increased by more than three billion and the struggle to feed, clothe, house, and educate ever-growing numbers of people continues. "Temporary skirmishes" seem persistent, if not permanent.

Writers sometimes confuse population issues. For example, in his post, The Population Bomb: Has It Been Defused?,", Fred Pearce wrote that "The population bomb is being defused at a quite remarkable rate." He conflates rates of growth with actual numbers. It is true that the rate of population growth worldwide has declined since 1970. However, the base population has grown by more than three billion; thus we currently add 80 million or more people to the planet each year. That is hardly "defusing" population growth!

Writers may sometimes have short memories when they write about population growth. Fred Pearce's post at "Consumption Dwarfs Population as Main Environmental Threat," is one example. George Monbiot's post on "The Population Myth," is another. Both authors seem to have discovered that our rate of consumption is an issue, so both play down population numbers and focus on our consumption habits. Neither mentions the work of Paul Ehrlich and his I = PAT equation, where I represents our impact on the Earth, P equals population, A equals affluence (hence consumption), and T stands for technology.

Both population and consumption are parts of the problem--neither can be ignored and both are exacerbating the human impact on Earth. More distressing, however, is that many among us don't even see that there are problems created by both growing populations and increasing affluence bearing down on a finite planet. To pretend that another 80 million people added to the planet each year is not a problem because they are all being added to the world’s poor nations makes no sense at all. Many of them will end up in rich nations by migrating, legally or illegally, and all will further compound environmental problems, from strains on oil and other fossil fuel resources to deforestation and higher emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. As Kenneth Boulding noted decades ago, "Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."

Population, consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow until we either face up to the fact that there are limits on our finite Earth or we are confronted by a catastrophe large enough to turn us from our current course. If Chinese, Indians, and others in the poorer world had consumption levels that rose to current western levels it would be like Earth's population suddenly increasing to 72 billion, according to Jared Diamond, who then wrote that, "Some optimists claim that we could support a world with nine billion people. But I haven't met anyone crazy enough to claim that we could support 72 billion. Yet we often promise developing countries that if they will only adopt good policies--for example, institute honest government and a free-market economy--they, too, will be able to enjoy a first-world lifestyle. This promise is impossible, a cruel hoax: we are having difficulty supporting a first-world lifestyle even now for only one billion people."

This promise is often made by people who believe that that alone will stop population growth via the demographic transition, conveniently forgetting about such exceptions as China. As Tom Athanasiou argued, in Divided Planet: The Ecology of Rich and Poor, "In a world torn between affluence and poverty, the crackpot realists tell the poor, who must live from day to day, that all will be well in the long run. Amidst deepening ecological crisis, they rush to embrace small, cosmetic adaptations."

The widespread acceptance and political influence of modern neoclassical economics is a central part of our global problem. In one widely used economics textbook, Principles of Economics, Greg Mankiw wrote that “A large population means more workers to produce goods and services. At the same time, it means more people to consume those goods and services.” Speaking for many neoclassical economists, Tim Harford concluded, in The Logic of Life, that "The more of us there are in the world, living our logical lives, the better our chances of seeing out the next million years." The absurdity of Harford's statement must be recognized and challenged.

Economists do not deserve all the blame. As Thomas Berry noted, in The Great Work: Our Way into the Future, "Western civilization, dominated by a cultural arrogance, could not accept the fact that the human, as every species, is bound by limits in relation to the other members of the Earth community." On his Archdruid blog, John Greer added his observation that "Our culture's mythology of progress envisions the goal of civilization as a utopian state in which poverty, illness, death, and every other aspect of the human predicament has been converted into problems and solved by technology." We don't want to hear about limits.

Nowhere is acceptance of the twin towers of economic growth and increased consumption more apparent than in the United States, where "growing the economy" is still paramount, despite the leftovers of a financial meltdown created by banking and shadow banking systems run amok and a Gulf fouled by gushing oil. As Andrew Bacevich noted, in The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism, "For the majority of contemporary Americans, the essence of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness centers on a relentless personal quest to acquire, to consume, to indulge, and to shed whatever constraints might interfere with those endeavors." Yet evidence that modern economics has let most people down is abundant.

More than two decades ago Edward Abbey wrote, in One Life at a Time, Please, that "[W]e can see that the religion of endless growth--like any religion based on blind faith rather than reason--is a kind of mania, a form of lunacy, indeed a disease," adding that "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." He expressed his concern about modern economics as follows: "Economics, no matter how econometric it pretends to be, resembles meteorology more than mathematics. A cloudy science of swirling vapors, signifying nothing." Similarly, Nassim Taleb wrote, in The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, that "Economics is the most insular of fields; it is the one that quotes least from outside itself!" Gus Speth argued, in The Bridge at the End of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability, that "In the end, what has to be modified is the open-ended commitment to aggregate economic growth--growth that is consuming environmental and social capital, both in short supply." Barbara Ehrenreich wrote, in This Land is Their Land: Reports from a Divided Nation, that "The economists' odd fixation on growth as a measure of economic well-being puts them in a parallel universe of their own. . .the mantra of growth has deceived us for far too long." Whether in local areas, the United States, or the world, no problem that I can think of will be more easily solved with additional millions of people.

Future oil production will come at an increasing cost, if it comes at all. As Bill McKibbin noted, in Deep Economy: The Wealth of Comunities and the Durable Future, "Cheap and abundant fossil fuel [mainly oil] has shaped the farming system we've come to think of as normal; it's the main reason you can go to the store and get anything you want at any time and for not much money." More expensive oil will eat into world food production, especially if we continue to use foodstuffs to help fill gas tanks.

Scientists need to encourage a deeper and more realistic interest in population growth on a finite planet and its effect on many of the major issues of our time. We ignore the implications of further population growth at our peril. In 1971 Wilbur Zelinsky, in an article entitled "Beyond the Exponentials; The Role of Geography in the Great Transition," fretted that "The problem that shakes our confidence in the perpetuation and enrichment of civilized human existence or even our biological survival is that of growth: the rate, volume, and kinds of growth, and whether they can be controlled in intelligent, purposeful fashion."

Continued population growth is unsustainable, as is continued growth in the production of oil and other fossil fuels. As Lester Brown argued, in PLAN B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, "If we cannot stabilize population and if we cannot stabilize climate, there is not an ecosystem on earth we can save." As Alan Weisman wrote, in The World Without Us, “The intelligent solution [to the problem of population growth] would require the courage and the wisdom to put our knowledge to the test. It would henceforth limit every human female on Earth capable of bearing children to one.” Started now, such a policy would reduce Earth’s population down to around 1.6 billion by 2100, about the same as the world population in 1900. Had we kept Earth’s population at that level we would not be having this conversation.

Discussion Questions

1. Are there things we can do to get the population issue more into public discussion?

2. Are there other approaches to limiting population that might be more salable?

3. If Social Security is not sustainable, having fewer children will increase the likelihood that older adults will have no way of taking care of themselves. How does one deal with this issue?

Let us know what you think or check out the epic discussion at The Oil Drum >>

(This guest post previously appeared at The Oil Drum. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.)

Oil on Troubled waters.........

2010-07-06T12:35:00.000-07:00

Image via Wikipedia

Hate It, Love It, OIl is Here to Stay

Updated: Tuesday, 06 Jul 2010, 12:43 PM CDT
Published : Tuesday, 06 Jul 2010, 12:43 PM CDT

GREG GROOGAN
Reporter

HOUSTON - With so very much crude on collision course with the gulf coast there remains one enormously inconvenient, but undeniable truth.

That is, like or not, we'll need as much oil as we can possibly suck out of the ground for at least a full century.

Those who think differently have yet to dismantle the hard facts of global demand as assembled by Texas based writer and researcher Robert Bryce.

"If oil didn't exist we'd have to invent it. No other substance can compare when it comes to energy density, flexibility, convenience, cost, ease of handling. It is almost a miraculous substance," says Bryce.

"Oil allows mobility and without mobility we don't have commerce," adds the author of Power Hungry-The myths of "green" energy and the real fuels of the future.

Bryce says those who'd like alternatives to take the place of hydrocarbons, sooner rather than later, simply haven't done the math or reviewed the science. He has, and concludes that in a world which demands 223 million barrels of oil equivalent each and every day, alternatives don't have the fundamental energy density to make much of a dent, at least in the near term.

For example, it takes more than 800 square miles filled with giant wind turbines to match the out put of a single nuclear power plant.
"The wind energy business makes the corn ethanol business look like chump change. This is the biggest scam of the modern era. Cellulosic ethanol is like the Easter bunny or the tooth fairy. A lot of people believe in it, but nobody ever sees it," says Bryce, who backs his arguments with convincing mathematical calculations.
As for solar, Bryce says the 35th biggest coal mine in America, by itself, produces roughly twice as much raw energy per day as all the nation's solar panels and cells combined. Bottom line.

"Nine out of ten units of power we consume come from hydrocarbons - coal, oil and natural gas. Love them, hate them, don't care, they are here to stay, because we simply don't have replacements for them."

So, in a world with 1.6 billion people who still lack, but desperately desire electricity, how exactly do we reduce global warming by moving away from coal and petroleum consumption ?
Laced with frustration, Bryce's answer is measured in BTU's.

"We now have galaxies of natural gas in the U.S., a hundred year supply or more. But Dick Cheney will have to water board Barrack Obama before we ever hear the words natural gas. I cannot understand. He'll talk about solar and wind all day," says Bryce.

Gauging what he calls "the hard reality of thermodynamics", Bryce believes expanding natural gas usage as a bridge fuel to a future filled with highly efficient nukes is both a no-brainer and America's best bet

"There is no such thing as a free lunch in the energy business or anything else," he insists.

As for ideology, political or otherwise, Bryce says his only true loyalty is to uninterrupted air-conditioning and cold beer.

Refugees knocking on the door......

2010-07-05T13:05:00.000-07:00

Image by Tomás Rotger via Flickr

MORE refugees will knock on Australia's door unless rich countries help poorer nations cope with climate change, a key UN scientist has warned.

Professor Martin Parry - a prominent UK scientist who chaired the last United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of the impact of climate change - said wealthy countries such as Australia had “good, selfish reasons” to spend money helping the developing world adapt to global warming.

He said climate change assistance to the developing world was tipped to reach $50 billion a year by 2020 - double the amount of other types of foreign aid.

James Delingpole

2010-07-05T12:30:00.000-07:00

James Delingpole

James Delingpole is a writer, journalist and broadcaster who is right about everything. He is the author of numerous fantastically entertaining books including Welcome To Obamaland: I've Seen Your Future And It Doesn't Work,How To Be Right, and the Coward series of WWII adventure novels. His website is www.jamesdelingpole.com.

'Climate change sceptics have smaller members, uglier wives, dumber kids' says new study made up by warmists

By James Delingpole Politics Last updated: June 22nd, 2010

421 Comments Comment on this article

Are there really no depths to which ManBearPig-worshippers will not stoop in order to shore up their intellectually, morally and scientifically bankrupt cause?

Apparently not, as we see from the latest “study” – based on a petty, spiteful, Stasi-like blacklist produced by an obscure Canadian warmist – outrageously aggrandised by being published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (Hat tip: Watts Up With That)

The study examined 1,372 scientists who had taken part in reviews of climate science or had put their name to statements regarding the key findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Scientists were grouped as “convinced” or “unconvinced”, and researchers examined how many times they had published papers on the climate.
The results showed that “unconvinced” scientists accounted for just three of the 100 most prolific authors on the subject, while papers by “convinced” scientists were more frequently cited in other research.

Well, no s***, Sherlock. And might this have anything to do, perchance, with the fact that – as the Climategate emails made abundantly clear – “unconvinced” scientists were deliberately shut out of the peer-review process by the “convinced” ones?

And how many scientists, with bachelor of science degrees or higher, have signed the Oregon Petition expressing doubts about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)? 31,000 plus.

And how many of the supposed 2500 climate scientists responsible for the IPCC “consensus” were actively involved in the sections to do with AGW? 53.

And how many scientists does it require to successfully falsify – ie prove wrong – a shabby, tired old theory like “Phlogiston”, or “Geocentrism”, or “Dangerous, unprecedented Man Made Global Warming?” One.

But guess how BBC Radio 4 reported the story this morning? Yep. “98 per cent of scientists support global warming theory.” (Hat tip: Nick Mabbs)

Then again, since when did we expect any kind of honesty or decency from the Warmists? Have a look, for example, at this great analysis by the National Post’s Lawrence Solomon on how Warmist propagandists are using their useful idiots in the MSM to exaggerate the level of public credulousness in AGW.

In a New York Times op-ed, which has been much crowed-over by warmists, a Stanford university professor called Krosnick argued that – contrary to the impression given by every other opinion poll in the last three years – the majority of the US public is fully behind measures to ruin their economy in the name of combatting climate change.

In our survey, which was financed by a grant to Stanford from the National Science Foundation, 1,000 randomly selected American adults were interviewed by phone between June 1 and Monday. When respondents were asked if they thought that the earth’s temperature probably had been heating up over the last 100 years, 74 percent answered affirmatively. And 75 percent of respondents said that human behavior was substantially responsible for any warming that has occurred.
For many issues, any such consensus about the existence of a problem quickly falls apart when the conversation turns to carrying out specific solutions that will be costly. But not so here.
Fully 86 percent of our respondents said they wanted the federal government to limit the amount of air pollution that businesses emit, and 76 percent favored government limiting business’s emissions of greenhouse gases in particular. Not a majority of 55 or 60 percent — but 76 percent.

Solomon explains here how Krosnick rigs his questions in order to “hide the decline” in public support for AGW lunacy.

The best question of all, Krosnick found, came from adding an assumption of pessimism:” What do you think will be the most serious problem facing the world in the future if nothing is done to stop it?” When put this way, 25% of the public responded with “Global warming/the environment.” Krosnick doesn’t tell us how many of that 25% choose global warming versus the myriad of other environmental issues, such as air pollution, food and drinking water safety, wildlife and species protection, farmland or woodlands protection.
Krosnick recommends that pollsters ask his 25% question, believing it will obtain a result more useful for policy makers. He also chastises the press for interviewing global warming sceptics along with global warming advocates, saying this creates in the public mind the impression that the science is not settled on global warming. 6% of articles on global warming last year included the views of sceptics, a percentage Krosnick evidently views as too high.
Krosnick gets different results than other pollsters do by asking questions that some might consider bizarre. For example, when people told him that they didn’t believe global warming was happening, he asked them to pretend they did by asking them, “Assuming that global warming is happening, do you think a rise in the world’s temperature would be caused mostly by things people do, mostly by natural causes, or about equally by things people do and by natural causes? He then lumped the pretend response from people who don’t believe in global warming with a similar question asked of people who weren’t pretending about their belief in global warming. The result of the merger of these two groups was: 30% blame global warming on humans, 25% blame global warming on natural causes, and 45% believe humans and natural causes are about equally to blame. In the New York Times oped, Krosnick summarized this finding by pretenders and believers as “75% of respondents said that human behaviour was substantially responsible for any warming that has occurred,” even though many of those 75% didn’t believe that global warming was happening at all.

So when dealing with the Warmist lobby, always remember these helpful tips: sup with a long spoon, know that they’re lying from the fact that their lips are moving, and when they leave, make sure to count your fingers and your silverware.

Tags: Lawrence Solomon, lies, lies and more lies, National Academy of Sciences, Pravda, Warmist

A conservative view

2010-07-05T12:25:00.000-07:00

On energy and the progressive plans for “cap and tax”

A Conservative View

By Lester H. BeairdThe Huntsville Item

HUNTSVILLE — I will confess to having been in somewhat of a quandary the last couple of weeks. Said quandary has been that of trying to decide what topic to write about. Our Constitutional Republic (that’s right — not a Democracy) has never been more threatened by numerous assaults than it is at this time. After deliberation, I decided to write about the push by the current administration to pass “Cap and Tax” legislation.

Do we have crisis in our usage of petroleum products? Yes we do, but not as portrayed by the “progressives” and many of the media. Do we need regulation and inspection of petroleum production? Certainly we do. It is glaringly obvious that the governmental inspection of the well causing the current damage in the gulf was ineffectual. The events around that disaster will be included in a subsequent article.

In discussing the proposed “Cap and Tax” legislation, I will be obliged to use a considerable amount of generalizations. These generalizations will represent my views regarding the real importance of this effort. For those detractors — this usage is at least as fair as the convoluted, stilted manner the legislation is written. Until there is direct, clear, transparent and comprehensive debate clarifying just what is intended, it is my contention that my generalizations are as valid as the bill.

Some basic assumptions are made by the administration and Congress to justify the need for this legislation. There is the assumption that “global warming” is real, and is a crisis. There is the further assumption that the federal government is the only entity capable of making the decisions necessary to combat this. Another assumption is that throwing billions (or trillions) of our tax dollars at the problem will fix it.

There is a great deal of disagreement regarding the idea of “global warming.” Despite the progressive talking points alleging that a preponderance of scientific experts agree, that is not the case. There have been many instances uncovered that the core group of “experts” have more or less cooked the books by reporting data favorable to their theory and hiding data that would refute. The fact that some of these same “experts” have ties to organizations that stand to profit immensely from “Cap and Tax” makes this situation that much more questionable.

Regarding the federal government being the body to make those decisions; what problem do you recall that the government had made “better” by creating myriads of bureaucratic agencies doling out our tax dollars? I can think of exactly zero.

It appears to me that there are two factors that are the prime movers of this attempt to pass “Cap and Tax.” One is power, and the other is money. As I read the House Bill (H.R. 2454; American Clean Energy And Security Act) sponsored by Waxman and Markey in 2009, the quest for additional growth and power of the federal government is apparent. Through bureaucracies created, and/or enhanced for the task, this bill would place in the hands of the federal government immense additional power that transcends bail-outs, and the taking over of financial institutions, health care and auto manufacturing. This would be done by the creation and control of “Carbon emission credits”.

In order to combat the alleged “Global warming”, decisions will be made by governmental agencies to determine the amount of emissions allowable by essentially every entity in the country. Then, the federal government will make the decision and assign the number of carbon credits received by each of those entities, using a scale determined by the government. These carbon credits would be purchased from the government. Once purchased, the owner would then be free to use them to “pay” for emissions, or sell them to other entities through an approved exchange. One such exchange is already in existence, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX).

This power play by the federal government is massive. One of the first steps would be acquiring greater control over the states. This would be done by forcing each state to provide a plan for each component of the legislation, using the threat of withholding funds for non-compliance. This is the same as is being done with highway funds and others, but would be on a larger scale. States, faced with the burdensome regulation requirements, would essentially have no option for non-compliance.

The next step would be the enhanced control of utilities and manufacturing, which would have a tremendous burden regarding the development of “green energy” and compliance with a monstrous amount of “green energy” requirements for the manufacture of products, and for the products themselves. A huge increase in manufacturing costs would be inevitable. You know what that will do to prices. They will, as our President said about electricity prices, “necessarily skyrocket.”

If you are thinking that the direct impact on you personally will not be all that bad, think again. If you have not done so yet, get on the internet and read this bill, particularly the section captioned Title II – Energy Efficiency. In this section there are several factors that should be of interest. It speaks to assigning energy efficiency “standards” to residences, and that these standards must be addressed as a part of any mortgages that are entered into — assuming the availability of a mortgage from a “green” bank, whatever that is.

In other words, an inspector from a governmental agency will be involved in the decision for you to buy or sell a house. This inspector and his agency will have the power to define what work you must have done to achieve compliance, and he or another government agent will have approval authority regarding who does the work, since there are requirements regarding “approved’ contractors, and the payment of prevailing wages.

I wonder — does this mean that the fix might be in for requiring union labor to do work you might be capable of doing for yourself? What do you think?

Another factor regarding the consolidation of power by the federal government is the veritable pipeline of money (my taxes and yours) in the form of huge grants for academics to “study” various aspects of energy problems, and the billions of dollars that would be used to “redistribute” tax dollars in the form of subsidies to pay utility bills and foot the bill for renovations for millions of people. As an entitlement program, there is no real estimate yet as to its ultimate size. Could it get us to the tipping point that is approaching regarding entitlements that we are so near? You know the one — that point in which there are so many more of those who are receiving than those who are providing that our social system will crash. I am afraid that it might.

There will not be space in this article to provide any wealth of discussion of the Chicago Climate Exchange, so it will be visited at a later date. It is my opinion that its primary purpose is tremendous enrichment of a number of the principals in this group, many of whom have ties to the same government officials who are pushing for “Cap and Tax”.

If this doesn’t cause you some indigestion, it should. Don’t take my word for it, or take the opposite side because of what I have said. Research it yourself. See for yourself, as best as you can, who are the people involved. Look for yourself at the potential for this to be a scam that makes Barney Madoff “s scams seem small.

- 18 C............

2010-01-07T07:55:00.000-08:00

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Snow UK: what happens when it hits -18C

What happens when temperatures drop to -18C

By Nick Collins
Published: 3:32PM GMT 07 Jan 2010

Benson, Oxfordshire, which recorded a low of minus 17.7 degrees centigrade overnightPhoto: PA

1. -18C is the recommended temperature at which to keep a household freezer

2. It is 0 farenheit.

3. It is the temperature at which table salt can no longer be used to melt ice

4. It is the temperature at which sunflower oil freezes

5. -18°C is the average temperature for this time of year in Irkutsk, Siberia.

6. It is also the average temperature at the summit of Mount Everest during July.

7. If the earth had no atmosphere at all, its surface temperature would be approximately -18C

Met Office - 16 inches of snow TONIGHT!!!!! in Southern UK!!!!!!!!

2010-01-05T08:25:00.000-08:00

Extreme weather warning as Met Office forecasts 16 INCHES of snow across southern England tonight

By SOPHIE FREEMAN
Last updated at 3:46 PM on 05th January 2010

Fears Britain could run out of gas after surge in demand to heat homes
Entire bus networks suspended, binmen diverted to gritting duties
Lorry driver killed, thousands caught up in tailbacks
Two people die in frozen lakes, one man missing
Shoppers begin panic-buying winter food and salt to clear paths
Thousands of pupils told to stay home as snow shuts schools
Business leaders warn of economic impact as staff fail to turn up

An 'extreme weather' alert was issued for southern England today as snow and ice brought transport networks to an abrupt halt.

Heavy snowfall is expected across southern areas of England that have not seen snow so far during this cold spell, as freezing conditions persist across the country.

The heavy snow that has been affecting Scotland and northern England is moving south and the heaviest falls over the next 24 hours are expected across parts of central and southern England and southeast Wales.

Slow motion: Cars trundle along in the snow at Sherburn in Elmet, North Yorkshire today

Stranded: A man struggles to push a car up a snow-covered hill in Wetherby, West Yorkshire, today

The Met Office said London and the South-East could expect up to a foot and a half of snow in some places leading to disruption on transport networks and power supplies.

It predicted exceptionally heavy snowfall was expected from around 8pm with 'accumulations of 15 to 30 centimetres (six to 12 inches) and perhaps in excess of 40cm (16 inches)'.

The heaviest snow is likely in the commuter belt of Hampshire, Oxfordshire and Berkshire but up to 10 inches could hit the suburbs of London.

Enlarge

Such huge falls of snow would be more than four times those seen before Christmas which almost brought London to a standstill.

Tomorrow temperatures will barely rise above freezing.

Derek Turner from the Highways Agency urged motorists to drive safely.

'We are working flat out to keep our roads safe and serviceable for use,' he said. 'However, it is very important to drive appropriately for the conditions; and even when roads are treated and appear ice and snow free they should still be negotiated with care.'

The current cold weather started in mid December and has been the most prolonged spell of freezing conditions across the UK since December 1981. Bitterly cold and wintry weather is forecast to continue for the next couple of weeks with further snowfall expected at times.

A spokeswoman for the Met Office said snow can accumulate on power lines and bring them down, affecting supplies to homes. Similarly, snow can collect on branches of trees and if these snap, they can also bring down power lines.

Scotland and the North of England have so far been the worst hit by the snow today.

Airports have been closed, entire bus services have been suspended in some of the UK's major towns and cities, while motorists have become trapped in tailbacks up to 12 miles long.

More...

It comes as business leaders warn of a major impact on the economy as employees fail to turn up for work during what is predicted to be one of the coldest winters in 100 years.

On the M60 near Bredbury, Greater Manchester, a lorry driver was killed after a collision with another HGV shortly after 10am today, while motorists on the M6 in Lancashire were caught up in 12-mile tailbacks.

Going nowhere: Thick snow covers the cars at a dealership in Manchester today

Arctic blast: A young woman removes snow from her car before leaving for work today as the weather causes problems in Davenham, Cheshire

A driver was also treated for shock today after his car skidded on to a level crossing in snow and was then hit by a train. British Transport Police said the 44-year-old managed to get out of his Ford Mondeo on the crossing near Selby, North Yorkshire, before the slow moving train crashed into it shortly after 8am.

The death toll over recent days rose higher after a woman in her 50s was found dead beneath the ice in a frozen pond on a village green. Emergency services were called to Frampton-on-Severn, Gloucestershire, after a dog walker spotted the shape of a body beneath the ice on Sunday.

Bold move: A tourist stands on the frozen ice of Trafalgar Square's fountains in London

In West Yorkshire, a 57-year-old man also died after being pulled from a freezing park lake.

The man, who has not yet been named, was found in the water at Harold Park, Bradford on Sunday night. He was pronounced dead in hospital.

Fears were also growing today for a 36-year-old man who has been missing for two days in freezing temperatures. A major search is under way for Ian Simpkin, from Ripon, North Yorkshire, who left home on foot on Sunday at 10am.

The freezing weather has led to fears that Britain could run short of gas after the National Grid warned power suppliers to use less of the fuel after seeing a 30 per cent rise on normal seasonal demand. It is only the second time such a warning has been issued in 30 years.

It comes as supermarkets report panic buying by shoppers desperate to stock up on comfort food and anti-freeze. Cat litter and salt is also proving popular in icy areas, with customers using it to clear their roads and pathways.

Asda said sales of its thermal underwear had soared by 1,000 per cent, with fire logs up 71 per cent and vacuum flasks up 129 per cent. Wellington boots, puddings and take-away food are also selling well, the retailer said.

Halfords said it had seen a five-fold increase in sales of snow chains, which are attached to wheels to increase road grip, since the cold snap began.

Enlarge

Six inches of snow is forecast to fall today as the icy blast tightens its grip. The South is expected to see the worst of the weather as heavy winter showers move south across England and Wales throughout the day.

Snow forced the closure of Manchester, Leeds-Bradford and Liverpool airports this morning, while ten train services between London and Leeds on the East Coast Main Line have been cancelled and thousands of school pupils have been told to stay home.

Dozens of schools failed to reopen yesterday and remain closed today, leaving thousands of parents searching for last-minute childcare.

Airports round-up

Manchester: Reopened at 12.30pm, many flights cancelled, severe delays

Liverpool: Now reopened, but with delays and flight cancellations

Glasgow: Open, but delays and cancellations

Heathrow: Open, but check with airline

Gatwick: Open, but check with airline

Luton: Open, but check with airline

Southampton: Open, but check with airline

Birmingham: Open, but check with airline

Leeds-Bradford: Now reopened

In the North West, more than 130 schools have been closed in Greater Manchester, 73 in Lancashire and 116 in Cumbria.

Bus operator Stagecoach said it had suspended many of its services across Greater Manchester because of the conditions, but was trying to operate on main routes into the city.

All proceedings at Manchester Crown Court were cancelled for the day due to the weather, while the city centre resembled a ghost town as shoppers stayed home.

Bus services in Sheffield and Barnsley in South Yorkshire have been suspended until roads are made safe and there are reports of widespread road problems across the county. The centre of Rotherham is said to be 'gridlocked'.

Bin collections have been scrapped in many Northern towns and cities, with refuse collectors diverted to gritting and snow-clearing duties.

Thousands of schools have been closed across Scotland, the North East, Yorkshire and the North West.

Hundreds of schools have also been shut across Wales.

Winter wonderland: Walkers in Allendale, Northumberland after heavy snow fall today

This was the scene in snow covered street in Perth, Scotland this morning

In addition to the London to Leeds rail service cancellations, several London to Glasgow services on the East Coast main Line are currently stopping at Edinburgh. The line operator said it would be operating a revised timetable today due to the adverse weather conditions.

Liverpool John Lennon Airport was forced to close at 5.30am this morning due to heavy snow and ice and a number of flights have been cancelled. The airport reopened shortly after 10am today with heavy delays.

Manchester Airport was also closed earlier today and all flights were suspended until midday.

Budget airline easyJet has cancelled 37 flights on its European network.

Grounded: Flights were suspended at Manchester Airport today as tractors attempted to clear the runway

On the roads, part of the A66 between County Durham and Cumbria are closed, while snow on the A1 in Northumberland is causing problems for motorists, with extreme caution being urged.

The RAC said it is currently dealing with around 1,400 incidents an hour.

Major sporting fixtures also fell victim to the weather, with Blackburn forced to call off the first leg of its League Cup semifinal against Aston Villa. Manchester City is due to host Manchester United in the other semifinal on Wednesday, but the Eastlands ticket office and ground was closed today.

The Met Office has issued an advisory for heavy snow and ice across much of the UK today, with up to six inches of snow forecast for Hampshire, Dorset, Wiltshire and Oxfordshire tonight.

A postman delivers mail in the snow near the town of Bewdley in Worcestershire today

Jams: Traffic comes to a standstill on the A1 in Newcastle during rush hour this morning

A spokesman said: 'Most places could get some snow, with the showers moving down from the Pennines and Peaks to the South of England by the evening.

'The South could see around six inches on Tuesday evening, while there will be a few centimetres elsewhere.'

Temperatures will plummet to a treacherous -8C (18F) tonight and Wednesday morning, he added.

MeteoGroup forecaster Brendan Jones said the cold spell was 'purely because of the wind direction across the UK'.

'The prevailing wind that our weather comes from is usually from the south-west and west and that means the weather usually comes from the Atlantic,' he said.

'We do get cold spells every winter but, because the weather tends to come from the west, winters are usually mild and wet with occasional cold spells.

Two pictures showing the River Tyne which has frozen over today at Chollerford, Newcastle

'For the last three weeks, since mid-December, winds have come in from the north and east and everywhere in between.

'It has been the complete opposite of what usually happens.

'The wind has either been coming from the Arctic or from Scandinavia and parts of Siberia - all the cold places.

'Our source of warmer and milder weather has been completely cut off.'

In Scotland, Renfrewshire and Fife Councils said they were being forced to preserve salt stocks and warned of 'significant problems' if supplies were not replenished.

The moves will provoke fears that councils in England and Wales could also run out of grit and salt within days.

The sub-zero temperatures and snow showers are expected to continue until at least the weekend.

Forecaster Stephen Davenport said the: 'This is stretching the limits of short to medium term forecasting but so entrenched is this cold-weather pattern that it seems only a major upheaval in the atmosphere will bring a return to something milder.

The BBC weather map showing the snow moving across central and western areas of England today and then moving further east while blanketing most of Scotland tomorrow

'Should conditions continue in a similar vein then by March we might just be looking back at one of the coldest winters of the last 100 years.'

The warning follows another day of misery for commuters - and an extra day's holiday for up to three million workers who used the freezing conditions as an excuse to stay at home.

Business lobby groups estimated that as many as one in ten failed to make it back into the office yesterday after the two-week festive break.

Northern England and Scotland saw the worst of the winter yesterday as temperatures plunged to -12c (10f).

The Met Office yesterday confirmed that December was the coldest in Britain since 1995. However, despite the chilly snap, the whole of 2009 was milder than 2008 and remained the 14th warmest year in the UK since records began in 1914, it added.

Cross-country: A woman makes her way across heavy snow in Harrogate, North Yorkshire today

The Federation of Small Businesses said it estimates about ten per cent of Britain's workers could not bear to go back to work.

Stephen Alambritis, from the business lobby group, said: 'Some will have had a genuine reason, but many are just trying it on.

'They may have just drunk too much and ate too much over Christmas, and they just can't be bothered to go into work.'

He estimates the cost to the economy will be about £600million from lost productivity and lost taxes.

Other business lobby groups said workers who stayed at home were not being fair on their colleagues or their companies.

A car stuck in central Manchester is pushed out of the snow

Fun in the snow: A woman walks her dog in Cale Green Park, Stockport, this morning

The Forum of Private Business estimated the cost to the economy would be lower, at around £230million, but this is still equivalent to a drop of around five per cent in the country's daily economic output.

Chief executive of the forum, Phil Orford, said: 'There may be cases where some staff members are unable to come into work for legitimate reasons.

'But others have clearly view this cold snap as an opportunity to stay at home with potentially damaging effects on small firms and the economy.

'Small employers need their key staff to be responsible, brave the harsh weather and come in wherever possible.

'It is a case of all hands to the pump, particularly given the recessionary conditions we are still facing.'

Many workers may have tried to get to work but genuinely had trouble with their car, according to the AA.

As news of the gas warning emerged today, Gordon Brown said he remained confident that Britain would manage okay.

'I think Britain can deal with these problems,' he said. 'There are always difficulties when we have a long spell of bad weather. But we can cope.'

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