Thursday, February 28, 2008

Strong evidence of GB from glaciers

Stronger evidence of global warming



R. Ramachandran






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Area of glaciers reduced from 3,391 to 2,721 sq. km. between 1962-2004

By 2050, negative mass balance of glaciers will be

90 per cent


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Udhagamandalam: With more recent data on the Himalayan glaciers from the Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites, scientists of the Space Applications Centre (SAC) of the Indian Space Research Organisaation (ISRO) at Ahmedabad now have much stronger evidence of the finger print of global warming in the observed alarming retreat of these glaciers.

The new results were presented at the ongoing National Space Science Symposium (NSSS-2008) here by Dr. Anil V. Kulkarni of SAC.

In 2004 Dr. Kulkarni and his colleagues investigated the spatial extent of 466 glaciers in the basins of Chenab, Parbati and Baspa using remote sensed data and compared them with the 1962 topographic data of the Survey of India.

They found an overall reduction of 21 per cent in the glacial surface area. They had also found that the process of deglaciation had led to the fragmentation of large glaciers resulting in the reduction in the mean surface area of glacial extent from 1 sq. km. to 0.32 sq. km. during 1962-2004.

The new data pertains to two additional basins of Warwan and Bhut comprising 253 and 189 glaciers respectively. Together with the earlier data on 466 glaciers, the cumulative area of these 908 Himalayan glaciers has been found to have reduced from 3391 sq. km. to 2721 sq. km., implying a total area reduction of 20 per cent.

Another new finding is that the snow line — altitude above which there is no snowmelt had significantly increased in the Himalayan basins since 1970. Snow line essentially is the line of zero mass balance, where snow accumulation equals ablation or melting. For example, studying 30 glaciers in the Baspa basin, the scientists found that the snow line had increased from 4900 m in 1970 to 5300 m in 2006.

More quantitatively, the scientists found that the percentage area of the 30 glaciers below the snow line was only 25 per cent between up to 1990. This means that only 25 per cent of the glacial area had negative mass balance. In 2006, this fraction increased to 70 per cent. The scientists predict that by 2050, this fraction would be a high 90 per cent.

One of the significant changes due to warming that Dr. Kulkarni and his associates had seen even in the earlier work was that the winter run off had increased by as much as 75 per cent between 1966 and 1995. Now they have more quantitative glacier-wise data, which shows the snow accumulation having a wavelike pattern, instead of a flat profile of accumulated snow during peak winter.

Snowfalls



This shows that between snow storms or heavy snow falls the warming is resulting in significant melt. So, even the episodes of heavy snowfalls in the north during the most recent winter should not be taken to imply that warming has not significantly affected the Himalayan snow and glacier formation, Dr. Kulkarni said. Far less accumulation is occurring in glaciers today than before and this is a clear imprint of warming, he added.

Earthquake in Lincolnshire......




An earthquake in Lincolnshire is felt all over UK but particularly in Barnsley.......

Chimney pot falls off roof and knocks a man's flat 'at off!

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

David Suzuki & Global Warming

David Suzuki and uncomfortable warming
Monday, February 25, 2008 at 10:44 PM Comments: 15Previous Post Next Post

If you listen to David Suzuki, you'd hear about how human activity is causing the Earth to warm up. Specifically, how a mere 30 million Canadians are supposed to shoulder a large amount of the blame.

His rhetoric has become increasingly heated, ironically.

Well, it seems that the heat generated by his latest comments has caused David Suzuki to throttle it back.


David Suzuki was embroiled in controversy over the last two weeks following repeated comments made to university students in which he declared not believing in the theory of anthrogenic global warming to be a crime, and that politicians ought to be imprisoned who do not follow David Suzuki's formula to save the planet.

The apparent shift from scientific theory to a state-sponsored religious orthodoxy became a flashpoint for a slew of editorials across the country denouncing Suzuki's comments.

For many columnists, Suzuki's comments represented confirmation of what they had long suspected -- global warming was no longer a matter of science, but of faith. And a dark form of faith, with inquisitions and imprisonment for those who exhibited less-than-acceptable zeal for the Environmental Word.

Though nowhere does it say this, I wonder if David Suzuki was feeling progressively more uncomfortable with the increased temperature. Even as the initial furor died down, references to Suzuki and his demand for jail terms for the unbelievers continued to appear in the media -- sometimes in a serious way, sometimes in a mocking tones.

Unless something was done quickly, that image of David Suzuki demanding that prisons be emptied of killers and thieves to make room for skeptics who drive SUVs (not what he called for, exactly, but these things grow in the retelling) would become indelible.

And so the next major announcement from David Suzuki speaks of taxes. Not higher taxes to shut down the carbon dioxide spewing economy, but lower taxes for all of us:

David Suzuki is trying to speak Stephen Harper's language, releasing a report Monday that argues a strong climate change plan could produce deep income tax cuts.

The well-known environmentalist and Simon Fraser University economist Mark Jaccard released a report Monday morning on Parliament Hill that outlines various options for Ottawa to implement a carbon tax or other ways of forcing polluters to pay for their environmental impacts.

The report argues that making polluters pay a fee for every tonne of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere could raise between $50-billion and $100-billion in revenue annually by 2020.

The report argues that most of that revenue could be used to greatly reduce personal income taxes.

Rather than devoting all the revenue to tax cuts, the report suggests some of the money be put toward renewable energy projects such as wind and solar power.

Suggests that some of the money be put into windmills?

Who are you and what have you done with the real David Suzuki?!

I'll leave the question of whether this idea seems credible. I won't even delve into the question of whether David Suzuki is being sincere when he says money ought to be put back into the economy, or even if he really believes there is any likelihood of money being available to put back in.

But I find the timing interesting. David Suzuki's middle initial is "T". Perhaps he was worried if people would wonder if it stood for Torquemada, the Dominican most identified with the excesses of the Spanish Inquisition. So out comes a report in which David Suzuki bangs on the "lower taxes" drum.

Go green and we'll all be rich!

Right. Sure. And if I'm as skeptical of your wildly optimistic economic theories as I am of your shrill environmental prophecies of doom, then what? Is there a wing of your prison those people too?

It'll take more than promising money you don't have to make people forget that you told Canadian youth to put the previous generation in jail.



Search for more opinions from Canadian bloggers on these related keywords
David Suzuki global warming taxes

Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Win.

IN 52 SECS WHY BARACK OBAMA CANNOT WIN A GENERAL ELECTION

Earthquake in the UK


UK rocked by powerful earthquake

The biggest earthquake to hit the UK for almost 25 years has shaken homes across England and parts of Wales.

Lincolnshire was hit by the centre of the quake early on Wednesday, but the tremors woke people up as far away as Newcastle, London and Cardiff in Wales.
The main quake lasted about 10 seconds and measured 5.3 on the Richter Scale.
Lots of chimneys collapsed, roof tiles fell off and the emergency services received loads of calls, but luckily it seems no-one was seriously hurt.


Did YOU feel the earthquake? Tell us here...

The centre of the quake hit LincolnshireYou've been telling us what the quake felt like where you live.
In Lincolnshire, eight-year-old John said it felt like a rollercoaster ride, but Molly, nine, thought it was much scarier.
"It was really bad here and we thought it was a plane crash from our nearest airport," she said. "We were bouncing around. It was that strong and really scary."

The last big earthquake to hit the UK measured 5.4 on the Richter Scale when it struck north Wales in 1984, but a smaller quake hit Kent in April last year.

Really Cool!

Cooler temperatures, more snow, in cards for March

John Schudlo, Ottawa CitizenPublished: Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Don't think about putting away that shovel or scarf any time soon.

Ottawa's seemingly relentless onslaught of snow continued Tuesday, with 10 to 15 centimetres expected to fall by Wednesday morning. Then, says Environment Canada, temperatures will drop to as low as -22 on Thursday, a full 10 degrees below the average for this time of year.
And after that? More snow on Friday and Saturday. "We cry 'uncle' and we think that nature is humanitarian and it will be kind to us," says Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips.
"Well, that's not the case."
He says many people think that because Ottawa has already gotten so much snow this year - 302 cm in total, 64 per cent more than average for this time of year - the weather is bound to let up soon.


"The thing is, it's probably still another eight weeks," says Mr. Phillips. "We haven't stopped counting the flakes." He likes to remind people that Ottawa has never had a March on record without snow, and only three of the past 70 Aprils haven't produced snowfall in the area.
Still, he says, people can take solace in knowing that the days are getting longer and the sun is getting more intense. That, combined with the typical jump in rainfall that March brings, will help to wash some snow away.
Mr. Phillips says residents probably shouldn't expect this winter's snowfall to surpass the 450 cm the region experienced in the record-setting 1970-1971 winter.


But, Environment Canada is calling for a "normal to colder than normal" March, he adds.

Documenting the impossible

From Aardvarks to Zorillas: The mammoth project to document all 1.8 million species known to man

By Steve Connor, Science EditorWednesday, 27 February 2008

When it is finished, it will list every form of life known to man: from aardvark to zorilla. Yesterday that unprecedented project – to compile a database of every known species – took its first virtual steps with the publication of the first chapter of the Encyclopaedia of Life.
The online encyclopaedia is an ambitious attempt to describe all animals and plants in one place. The first 30,000 entries went live yesterday in what is being described as a "macroscopic" view of life on Earth.
Just as the invention of the microscope revolutionised the understanding of minute life forms, it is hoped that the Encyclopaedia of Life will give scientists and the public a powerful tool for understanding the wider context and immense diversity of the living world.
The first pages represent the earliest stage in what will eventually become a huge library of digital information on the estimated 1.8 million species of named animals, plants and fungi. Scientists hope to complete the project by 2017.
It will be the first time that people around the world will have access to a central source of scientifically verified information on all known species, whether it be the beautiful butterflyfish of tropical coral reefs, or the poisonous mushrooms of northern boreal forests.
The scientists behind the project say the power of the database lies in its ability to cross-reference information, to make comparisons and to yield patterns in
the data that would otherwise remain invisible to even the most seasoned experts.
The Encyclopaedia of Life would, for instance, be able to help to map the living carriers of human diseases, reveal the mysteries about why some animals live so much longer than others, suggest alternative ways for pollinating valuable crops where honeybees are in decline, and come up with new ways of battling against invasive species.
"It is exciting to anticipate the scientific chords we might hear once 1.8 million notes are brought together through this instrument," said Jim Edwards, the director of the Encyclopaedia of Life. "Potential EOL users are professional and citizen scientists, teachers, students, media, environmental managers, families and artists. The site will link the public and scientific community in a collaborative way that's without precedent in scale," said Dr Edwards.
The idea for the online encyclopaedia came from the veteran Harvard zoologist Edward O Wilson, who gave a lecture last year in which he said that the world needed a tool to help to preserve the threatened biodiversity of the planet.
"Our knowledge of biodiversity is so incomplete that we are at risk of losing a great deal of it before it is even discovered. The launch of the Encyclopaedia of Life will have a profound and creative effect in science," Professor Wilson said.
"It aims not only to summarise all that we know of Earth's life forms, but also to accelerate the discovery of the vast array that remain unknown. This great effort promises to lay out new directions for research in every branch of biology," he added.
The project is the result of a collaboration between the world's greatest biological research centres, such as the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, the Field Museum in Chicago and the Natural History Museum in London, which supplied information on the 70 million animal and plant specimens in its vast collection.
About two dozen of the 30,000 pages of the encyclopaedia that went live yesterday contain the full, multimedia information – text, graphics, pictures, videos and sound – that the scientists hope will one day be available for each of the 1.8 million entries. As new species are discovered, their descriptions will be added.
http://www.eol.org

Are you Skeptical?

Global warming sceptics bouyed by record cold

By Catherine Elsworth in Los Angeles
Last Updated: 7:01pm GMT 26/02/2008


Global warming sceptics are pointing to recent record cold temperatures in parts of North America and Asia and the return of Arctic Sea ice to suggest fears about climate change may be overblown.


The deceit behind global warming
Climate debate far from over, claim senators
Climate shift 'poles apart'


According to the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the average temperature of the global land surface in January 2008 was below the 20th century mean (-0.02°F/-0.01°C) for the first time since 1982.

Although some areas of the Northern Hemisphere experienced record cold, other areas experienced recorded above average temperatures
Temperatures were also colder than average across large swathes of central Asia, the Middle East, the western US, western Alaska and southeastern China.
The NCDC reported that the cold conditions were associated with "the largest January snow cover extent on record for the Eurasian continent and for the Northern Hemisphere".
In some parts of China and central Asia, snow fell for the first time in living memory, the NCDC noted.
"For the contiguous United States, the average temperature was 30.5°F (-0.83°C) for January, which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data".
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Much of North America was also hit by the heaviest snowfall since the 1960s.
Meanwhile, the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre found the January 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, while below the 1979-2000 mean, was greater than the previous four years.
And the January 2008 Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was significantly above the 1979-2000 mean, ranking as the largest sea ice extent in January over the 30-year historical period.
Generally there were cooler-than-average conditions in the southern oceans and in NiƱo regions, where the average temperature decreased markedly in January.
Canada's National Post reported that there were so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec that the property market has suffered because buyers did not want to go out. And in the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in 1950.
Asked about the Arctic ice cover, Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, told the Post the Arctic winter had been so severe, the ice has not only recovered but was actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than the same time last year.
"OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades," writes Lorne Gunter in the National Post.


"But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early, then it is at least fair game to use this winter's weather stories to wonder whether the alarmist are being a tad premature."


He also quotes Kenneth Tapping, of Canada's National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun and is convinced the Earth is destined for a long period of severely cold weather if solar activity does not pick up soon.
"The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850," Gunter writes.
"It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too."

Other figures from the NCDC, however, show that during January 2008, Europe, northern Asia and most of Australia experienced above average temperatures. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), temperatures were 3-4°C (5-7°F) above average across large areas of Western and Central Australia and as a whole, the country had its warmest January on record.
Sea surface temperatures were also warmer than average in the Atlantic, Indian, and the northwestern Pacific oceans.

Doomsday Vault

Norway's 'Doomsday Vault' holds seeds of survival

By Tony Paterson in BerlinMonday, 25 February 2008


The name alone makes it sound like a relict from the Cold War or something out of a Bond film: it is referred to as the "Doomsday Vault" and housed in an icy steel and concrete bunker, more than one hundred metres deep inside the mountain permafrost of an Arctic archipelago. Yet the Svalbard Global Seed Vault is man's latest attempt to create a latter-day Noah's Ark, or insurance policy, for the planet in the event of a catastrophe such as devastating climate change induced by global warming.


After decades of planning and construction work, the vault will officially start operating tomorrow. As the world's first global seed bank, it has the capacity to hold up to 4.5 million batches of seeds from all the known varieties of the planet's main food crops.
The vault cost €6m to construct and has been built to withstand nuclear missile attacks and even dramatic rises in sea levels that would result from both the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelves melting simultaneously.


The vault aims to make it possible to re-establish crops and plants should they disappear from their natural environment or be wiped out by major disasters. Cary Fowler, of the Global Crop Diversity Trust which set up the project together with Norway's Nordic Gene Bank yesterday described the vault as the "perfect place" for seed storage.


The vault is made up of three large, airtight, refrigerated cold-storage chambers which are housed in a long trident-shaped tunnel bored through a layer of permafrost in to a mountain of sandstone and limestone on the archipelago.
Norway's Svalbard's islands lie some 620 miles south of the North Pole deep inside the Arctic circle. No trees grow on the archipelago, which is home to some 2,300 people. It was selected because of its inhospitable climate and remoteness. The average winter temperature on Svalbard is around minus 14C. The vault is protected by high walls of fortified concrete, doors armoured with steel plate and a home guard of free-roaming polar bears.
"The facility is designed to hold twice as many varieties of agricultural crops as we think exist," said Mr Fowler, "It will not be filled up in my lifetime nor in my grandchildren's lifetime, but at these temperatures, seeds for important crops like wheat, barley and peas can last for 1,000 years," he added.
The permafrost and rocks surrounding the tunnels are meant to ensure the seed samples remain frozen, even if the plant's refrigeration system fails and global warming raises the outside temperature. "It is an insurance policy for the planet," Mr Carey said.
Tomorrow, when Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, and the Nobel Peace Prize-winning environmentalist Wangari Maathai arrive in Svalbard for the project's inauguration, the vault will contain some 250,000 seed samples.
Scientists involved in the project pointed out yesterday that some of the world's biodiversity had already been lost as a result of war or natural disaster. Gene vaults have disappeared in Iraq and Afghanistan following the US invasion and seed banks in the Philippines and Honduras fell to natural disasters.

The Svalbard vault already appears to have survived its first environmental test. Last Thursday what was described as "the biggest earthquake in Norway's history" – a tremor with a magnitude of 6.2 – was registered near the archipelago.

Eskimos to sue......Quite right too??

Eskimos to sue over global warming

A tiny Alaska village is suing two dozen oil, power and coal companies, claiming that the large amounts of greenhouse gases they emit contribute to the global warming they say threatens the community's existence.

The city of Kivalina and a federally recognised tribe, the Alaska Native village of Kivalina, has launched action against nine oil companies, 14 power companies and one coal company in a lawsuit filed in federal court in San Francisco.

Kivalina is a traditional Inupiat Eskimo village of about 390 people about 625 miles northwest of Anchorage.
It is built on an eight-mile barrier reef between the Chukchi Sea and Kivalina River.
Sea ice traditionally protected the community, whose economy is based in part on salmon fishing plus subsistence hunting of whale, seal, walrus, and caribou.
But sea ice that forms later and melts sooner because of higher temperatures has left the community unprotected from autumn and winter storm waves and surges that lash coastal communities.


"We are seeing accelerated erosion because of the loss of sea ice," City administrator Janet Mitchell said.
"We normally have ice starting in October, but now we have open water even into December so our island is not protected from the storms."



Relocation costs have been estimated at 400 million dollars (£20 million) or more.
Damage to Kivalina from global warming has been documented in official government reports by the Army Corps of Engineers and the General Accounting Office.


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Thursday, February 21, 2008

Take the test.....

Think you know a great deal about Global Warming. Take the test. Click on the link below..........


http://www.geocraft.com/


When you are in the site, Click on "Other" ~ This will take you to the test.

Want to get a different View?

The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change
Sponsored by The Heartland Institute
March 2 - March 4, 2008Marriott New York Marquis Times Square Hotel1535 BroadwayNew York City, NY U.S.A.

James M. TaylorConference CoordinatorSenior Fellow, The Heartland InstituteManaging Editor, Environment & Climate News

The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change is the first major international conference to focus on issues and questions not answered by advocates of the theory of man-made global warming.


Hundreds of scientists, economists, and public policy experts from around the world will gather on March 2-4, 2008, at the Marriott New York Marquis Hotel on Manhattan’s Time Square, to call attention to widespread dissent in the scientific community to the alleged “consensus” that the modern warming is primarily man-made and is a crisis.


Global Warming: Crisis or Scam?
The debate over whether human activity is responsible for some or all of the modern warming, and then what to do if our presence on Earth is indeed affecting the global climate, has enormous consequences for everyone in virtually all parts of the globe. Proposals to drive down human greenhouse gas emissions by raising energy costs or imposing draconian caps could dramatically affect the quality of life of people in developed countries, and, due to globalization, the lives of people in less-developed countries too.
The global warming debate that the public and policymakers usually see is one-sided, dominated by government scientists and government organizations agenda-driven to find data that suggest a human impact on climate and to call for immediate government action, if only to fund their own continued research, but often to achieve political agendas entirely unrelated to the science of climate change. There is another side, but in recent years it has been denied a platform from which to speak.

The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change promises to be an exciting event and the point of departure for future conferences, publications, and educational campaigns to present both sides of this important topic.


Conference Goals
The goals of the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change are:
to bring together the world’s leading scientists, economists, and policy experts to explain the often-neglected “other side” of the climate change debate;
to sponsor presentations and papers that make genuine contributions to the global debate over climate change;
to share the results of the conference with policymakers, civic and business leaders, and the interested public as an antidote to the one-sided and alarmist bias that pervades much of the current public policy debate; and
to set the groundwork for future conferences and publications that can turn the debate toward sound science and economics, and away from hype and political manipulation.


Attendance
Attendance is limited to 500 people.

Registration will be closed when that total is reached. Approximately 100 scientists, economists, and policy experts will participate as speakers and panelists. Admission is open to the public, but the following people are specifically urged to attend:
scientists, economists, and policy experts whose work has focused on some dimension of climate change, particularly challenging popular misconceptions about the causes, extent, and consequences of the modern warming
elected officials from all countries and at all levels of government who are grappling with legislative proposals being put forward in the name of “stopping global warming”
civic and business leaders, including the leaders of Chambers of Commerce, manufacturers associations, trade associations, foundations, and charities that have a voice or seek a voice in the current debate over climate change policies
publishers, editors, journalists, and free-lance writers who set editorial policy or write regularly on the debate over climate change science, economics, or politics.

Discounts for registration are available for journalists and students to encourage their attendance. Free admission and travel and hotel scholarships are available to elected officials, scientists, economists, and policy experts who are recommended by sponsors and track chairmen.

Please direct inquiries to James M. Taylor at taylor@heartland.org. Elected officials interested in attending should contact Trevor Martin, director of government relations for The Heartland Institute, at tmartin@heartland.org.


After the Conference
The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change is the first major international conference questioning global warming alarmism, but it will not be the last one. This event is intended to be a catalyst for future meetings, collaboration among scientists, economists, and policy experts, new research, and new publications.

The proceedings will be transcribed, edited, and published as a major contribution to the debate over global warming. Other possible follow-up activities now being discussed include:

an event in London in 2009;
launch of a new journal devoted to climate change;
launch of an association of philanthropists willing to support further research and public education opposing global warming alarmism;
support for an International Climate Science Coalition that will act as an alternative voice to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; and
expanded cooperation among the scores of organizations currently sponsoring research, publications, and events on the dubious claims in support of the theory of man-made catastrophic global warming.

Other sections of this Web site provide information about the conference’s background, program, registration, and sponsorship opportunities. The primary contact: is James M. Taylor, senior fellow of The Heartland Institute, taylor@heartland.org.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The Tipping Point.......

Scientists identify 'tipping points' of climate change

By Steve Connor, Science EditorTuesday, 5 February 2008


Nine ways in which the Earth could be tipped into a potentially dangerous state that could last for many centuries have been identified by scientists investigating how quickly global warming could run out of control.
A major international investigation by dozens of leading climate scientists has found that the "tipping points" for all nine scenarios – such as the melting of the Arctic sea ice or the disappearance of the Amazon rainforest – could occur within the next 100 years.
The scientists warn that climate change is likely to result in sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth if global average temperatures continue to rise as a result of the predicted increase in emissions of man-made greenhouse gases.
Most and probably all of the nine scenarios are likely to be irreversible on a human timescale once they pass a certain threshold of change, and the widespread effects of the transition to the new state will be felt for generations to come, the scientists said.
"Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic [man-made] climate change," they report in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study came out of a 2005 meeting of 36 leading climate scientists who drew on the expertise of a further 52 specialists. It is believed to be the first time that scientists have attempted to assess the risks of what they have termed "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system.
The nine elements range from the melting of polar ice sheets to the collapse of the Indian and West African monsoons. The effects of the changes could be equally varied, from a dramatic rise in sea levels that flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures and famine. Some of the tipping points may be close at hand, such as the point at which the disappearance of the summer sea ice in the Arctic becomes inevitable, whereas others, such as the tipping point for the destruction of northern boreal forests, may take several more decades to be reached.
While scenarios such as the collapse of the Indian monsoon could occur within a few years, others, such as the melting of the Greenland ice cap or the West Antarctic ice sheet, may take several centuries to complete. "Our findings suggest that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point in this century under human-induced climate change," said Professor Timothy Lenton, of the University of East Anglia, who led the study.
A tipping point is defined as the point where a small increase in temperature or other change in the climate could trigger a disproportionately larger change in the future. Although there are many potential tipping points that could occur this century, it is still possible to avoid them with cuts in greenhouse gases, said Professor Lenton.
He added: "But we should be prepared to adapt ... and to design an early-warning system that alerts us to them in time."
Irreversible changes
* Arctic sea ice: some scientists believe that the tipping point for the total loss of summer sea ice is imminent.
* Greenland ice sheet: total melting could take 300 years or more but the tipping point that could see irreversible change might occur within 50 years.
* West Antarctic ice sheet: scientists believe it could unexpectedly collapse if it slips into the sea at its warming edges.
* Gulf Stream: few scientists believe it could be switched off completely this century but its collapse is a possibility.
* El NiƱo: the southern Pacific current may be affected by warmer seas, resulting in far-reaching climate change.
* Indian monsoon: relies on temperature difference between land and sea, which could be tipped off-balance by pollutants that cause localised cooling.
* West African monsoon: in the past it has changed, causing the greening of the Sahara, but in the future it could cause droughts.
* Amazon rainforest: a warmer world and further deforestation may cause a collapse of the rain supporting this ecosystem.
* Boreal forests: cold-adapted trees of Siberia and Canada are dying as temperatures rise.
Interesting? Click here to explore further

Monday, February 18, 2008

Flooding ~ A personal Story

Odd weather: Reality or myth?


Disasters prompt concerns, but experts say worry not

By CURT SLYDERcslyder@journalandcourier.comand DAVID SMITHdsmith@journalandcourier.com


Dennis Kellar of Carroll County moved back into his home along the Tippecanoe River this week after a very expensive winter.

January flooding, followed by more flooding this month, cost him about $25,000 in repairs.

"That's just the house," he said. "I've still got to do the garage."
He wasn't alone.


Because of high water, President Bush declared nine Indiana counties disaster areas. So far nearly 1,000 residents in nine counties, including Carroll, White and Tippecanoe, have applied for federal assistance.
Back-to-back floods, record-breaking heat, killer tornadoes -- these extremes and others are causing many people to wonder if the weird weather phenomena are related -- perhaps the result of global warming.


Kellar goes even farther, speculating that extreme weather may have something to do with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that caused tsunamis, or tidal waves, that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
"Everything's been happening since that big tsunami," Kellar said. "Something is wrong. This is crazy."
Devdutta "Dev" Niyogi, Indiana state climatologist at Purdue University, tries to dispel such clouds of speculation with cold, hard facts. He said that while climate is undergoing long-term changes, other factors are likely causing the Midwest's weird weather.
The most likely culprit, he said, is La NiƱa -- a cooling of the Pacific Ocean that causes a shift in weather over North America every four to six years.
Higher than normal precipitation and temperature extremes "are the swings we expect with a La NiƱa type pattern," Niyogi said.
"And we're not out of the woods yet," he said. Niyogi said La NiƱa could bring additional high precipitation this winter, followed by potentially more violent thunderstorms in spring and summer.
"I'm not a climate change skeptic," he said. "I agree there is some degree of climate change occurring. We need to make cause and effect more clear."
Reality vs. perception
Niyogi said there is evidence that Indiana's growing season has lengthened in the past century. But that subtle shift, very real to farmers, doesn't get the same media attention as floods, tornadoes and other extremes.
"In a sense, we do see general increases in climate extremes. However, we also have a short-term memory. When we see something happen, we think it is the worse that's ever been."
Dave McDowell, director of the Carroll County Emergency Management Department, tends to agree.
"When I was in school, there was the Blizzard of '78," McDowell said. "All the headlines back then read 'Ice Age imminent.'
"There seems to be a shift in the weather every 20 years or so."
McDowell also believes people are making a bigger issue of extreme weather because communities are expanding into formerly undeveloped areas.
"As humanity expands, there are more things to damage," he said.
McDowell believes weather extremes are something that must be anticipated, whatever their cause. This is especially true in flood-prone areas.
Where was the warning?
When Kellar and others along the Tippecanoe River were flooded out Jan. 8, the high water came quickly. The flood occurred after warm temperatures the previous day melted snow and overnight thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain.
Oakdale Dam, a hydroelectric dam not designed for flood control, let the torrent pass through to the Tippecanoe River.
Downstream residents such as Kellar were caught by surprise, in part because the dam's owner, Northern Indiana Public Service Co., failed to trigger a phone alert system designed to warn residents of dangerously high flows.
"Many residents awoke to the sound of water rushing through their homes, after an early-warning system failed," noted Indiana's Jan. 28 application for federal relief, sent by Gov. Mitch Daniels to the White House.
Jim Fitzer, a public affairs manager for NIPSCO, said the dam operator on duty notified emergency and company personnel of the high flows but did not realize residents were not notified warned until the next day.
Fitzer said operating procedures have since been clarified, and the warning system worked properly when flooding returned on Feb. 5.
McDowell is pushing for a three-tiered warning system that would place warning sirens along the river and weather radios in every home along with the telephone warning system.
The cost of sirens could be substantial, potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars. "Right now, I'm trying to figure out how to pay for it," McDowell said.
With adequate warning, residents in the flood-prone areas could move themselves as well as furnishings, clothing and prized possessions out of harm's way.
Kellar agreed that a better warning system is needed.
"We need an early warning system from Buffalo, all the way down the Tippecanoe River," he said.
So far, the damage toll has run into the millions, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In the nine-county disaster declaration area, FEMA has processed 968 applications for disaster assistance from individuals and businesses.
The applications represent $3.1 million in assistance approved so far, an amount that could grow significantly in coming weeks, Sam Ventura, FEMA public information officer, predicted.
Those kinds of numbers tell McDowell that a warning system would be a worthwhile investment. He would like to see FEMA help pay for it, but he has been told such a request may have to go through Indiana's Homeland Security Department.
"If we get the money, I don't see why such a system couldn't be up this summer," McDowell said.


A brief history of Wabash flooding

A Journal & Courier analysis of Wabash River peak levels for the past 108 years suggests that significant flooding -- defined as a river level of 20 feet or more measured at Brown Street -- is no more common now than it was 50 to 100 years ago.Between 1901 and 1954 there were 30 floods in excess of 20 feet, the same number as from 1954 to present.And multiple significant floods in one year are not that uncommon either.The year 1927 saw three separate floods in excess of 20 feet, and during the 11 months between June 1958 and May 1959, three floods ranging in size from 22.4 feet to 26.4 feet occurred in Lafayette.The February 1959 flood, which prompted a national disaster declaration by President Eisenhower, was accompanied by an ice jam so big it threatened the bridges at Main and Brown streets.The Army Corps of Engineers drew up plans to break up the ice with dynamite, then raised the possibility of bombing it, according to Journal & Courier articles.While the discussion about what to do with the ice dragged on, the ice jam broke up on its own without serious consequence
.

-- David Smith/dsmith@journalandcourier.com

Breaking news today ~ Cold Weather hits China again........

180,000 stranded in southern China as cold weather returns: report
8 hours ago ~ 18th February 2008


BEIJING (AFP) — Freezing weather has again swept through southern China, leaving 180,000 people stranded and causing power outages, just as the region was recovering from the last cold snap, state press said Monday.
The latest cold weather has taken a severe toll in mountainous Yunnan province, where heavy snowfalls since Thursday have caused huge problems, the China Daily said.
Eighty percent of the two million residents in Qujing city remain without electricity due to the combined impacts of the most recent cold snap and the ferocious weather that first hit southern China in early January.
The snowfalls over the past few days have also blocked 14,000 kilometres (8,700 miles) of roads in Yunnan, a prime reason behind the large number of people stranded, the China Daily said, citing provincial transport authorities.
In Qujing, the second biggest city in Yunnan, six highways have been closed while 42 bus routes have been cancelled, according to the paper.

Yunnan was one of the areas hit hard by the cold snap in January and early February, which was the worst winter weather seen in the region in more than 50 years.

The weather led to the deaths of at least 107 people and caused more than 15 billion dollars in economic losses, according to official figures released last week.

Ice and snowfalls crippled power and transport networks, with authorities admitting they were unprepared for the ferocity of the weather.

Rain & Flooding hits Commuters in US

Rain, flooding slams morning commute
BY JOHN VALENTI john.valenti@newsday.com
7:29 AM EST, February 18, 2008


The bad news is that we're in for some terrible weather throughout the day Monday: Rain showers. A possible thunderstorm. Areas of dense fog. The possibility of flooding.The good news is that's it's President's Day. Meaning that traffic is light and many people have the day off -- so there are no mind-numbing morning rush-hour traffic jams.Still, the National Weather Service is advising that moderate rain will continue throughout the day with "brief periods" of heavy rainfall. Areas of fog will result in "very low visibilities with hazardous driving conditions," forecasters warn.

Men trying to fish on Frozen river in China


Snow in Athens


Something very odd is happening to the weather ~ Snow in Athens???????????

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Globally warm under the collar....


Valentine warning......Watch out for a warm front........